The point here is that the NPT is insufficient. With the alignment problem, it doesn’t matter much if one state has it or many individuals have it, it only matters if no one has it.
A better example is arguably biotech, and this only happened because WW2 torched the idea of human eugenics, thus indirectly slowing down biotech by preventing it’s funding.
The NPT framework, if it could be implemented, would be sufficient. The goal of the NPT is to enable countries to mutually verify that no additional country has acquired a nuclear weapon, while still enabling the spread of nuclear power to many more states. It has been pretty successful at this, with just a few new states gaining nuclear weapons over the last 50 years, whereas many more can enrich uranium/operate power plants.
It happens that the number of nuclear-armed countries at the NPT’s signing was nonzero, but if it had been 0, then the goal of the NPT would’ve been “no one anywhere can develop a nuclear weapon”.
A separate Q is “could we have implemented the NPT without Hiroshima, if scientists had strong evidence it would ignite the atmosphere?” People can have reasonable disagreements here; I think it’s lame not to try.
A separate Q is “could we have implemented the NPT without Hiroshima, if scientists had strong evidence it would ignite the atmosphere?” People can have reasonable disagreements here; I think it’s lame not to try.
The unfortunate answer is likely not, assuming the cold war happens like it did historically. Both sides were very much going to get nuclear weapons and escalate as soon as they were able to. You really need almost Alien Space Bats or random quantum events to prevent the historical outcome of several states getting nuclear weapons. Now w imagine those nuclear weapons were intelligent and misaligned, and the world probably goes up in flames. Not assuredly, but well over 50% probability per year.
The point here is that the NPT is insufficient. With the alignment problem, it doesn’t matter much if one state has it or many individuals have it, it only matters if no one has it.
A better example is arguably biotech, and this only happened because WW2 torched the idea of human eugenics, thus indirectly slowing down biotech by preventing it’s funding.
The NPT framework, if it could be implemented, would be sufficient. The goal of the NPT is to enable countries to mutually verify that no additional country has acquired a nuclear weapon, while still enabling the spread of nuclear power to many more states. It has been pretty successful at this, with just a few new states gaining nuclear weapons over the last 50 years, whereas many more can enrich uranium/operate power plants.
It happens that the number of nuclear-armed countries at the NPT’s signing was nonzero, but if it had been 0, then the goal of the NPT would’ve been “no one anywhere can develop a nuclear weapon”.
A separate Q is “could we have implemented the NPT without Hiroshima, if scientists had strong evidence it would ignite the atmosphere?” People can have reasonable disagreements here; I think it’s lame not to try.
The unfortunate answer is likely not, assuming the cold war happens like it did historically. Both sides were very much going to get nuclear weapons and escalate as soon as they were able to. You really need almost Alien Space Bats or random quantum events to prevent the historical outcome of several states getting nuclear weapons. Now w imagine those nuclear weapons were intelligent and misaligned, and the world probably goes up in flames. Not assuredly, but well over 50% probability per year.