The world has a lot of experience slowing down technological progress already, no need to invent new ways.
Fusion research slowed to a crawl in the 1970s and so we don’t have fusion power. Electric cars have been delayed by a century. IRB is successful at preventing many promising avenues. The FDA/CDC killed most of the novel drug and pandemic prevention research. The space industry is only now catching up to where it was 50 years ago.
Basically, stigma/cost/red tape reliably and provably does the trick.
Fusion research slowed to a crawl in the 1970s and so we don’t have fusion power
Requires huge specialized equipment. Some AI requires huge equipment, but (1) you can do a lot with a little, and (2) the equipment is heavily economically incentivized for other reasons (all the other uses of compute).
Electric cars have been delayed by a century.
Why was this? I’d’ve thought it’s basically battery tech, blocked on materials tech. Is that not right?
The space industry is only now catching up to where it was 50 years ago.
Wasn’t this basically un-investment? That’s not a lever we can easily pull with AI.
IRB is successful at preventing many promising avenues. The FDA/CDC killed most of the novel drug and pandemic prevention research.
Now we’re talking! How the heck does that work? I’m surprised enough that actually I’d guess it’s not that hard for a private investor to do research, it’s just that the research wouldn’t be allowed to be applied (enforceable because very public). Is that true? If not, why not?
Not sure if this is a possibility with AI. Electric cars and transport in general were apparently killed by the gas automobile industry. Battery tech was just enough for the daily commute, and there were options and workarounds.
I am not an expert on how the government regulation kills innovation, there is probably enough out there, including by Zvi and Scott Alexander.
The world has a lot of experience slowing down technological progress already, no need to invent new ways.
Fusion research slowed to a crawl in the 1970s and so we don’t have fusion power. Electric cars have been delayed by a century. IRB is successful at preventing many promising avenues. The FDA/CDC killed most of the novel drug and pandemic prevention research. The space industry is only now catching up to where it was 50 years ago.
Basically, stigma/cost/red tape reliably and provably does the trick.
Requires huge specialized equipment. Some AI requires huge equipment, but (1) you can do a lot with a little, and (2) the equipment is heavily economically incentivized for other reasons (all the other uses of compute).
Why was this? I’d’ve thought it’s basically battery tech, blocked on materials tech. Is that not right?
Wasn’t this basically un-investment? That’s not a lever we can easily pull with AI.
Now we’re talking! How the heck does that work? I’m surprised enough that actually I’d guess it’s not that hard for a private investor to do research, it’s just that the research wouldn’t be allowed to be applied (enforceable because very public). Is that true? If not, why not?
With fusion it was mostly defunding, just like with space exploration:
from https://21sci-tech.com/Articles_2010/Winter_2009/Who_Killed_Fusion.pdf
Not sure if this is a possibility with AI. Electric cars and transport in general were apparently killed by the gas automobile industry. Battery tech was just enough for the daily commute, and there were options and workarounds.
I am not an expert on how the government regulation kills innovation, there is probably enough out there, including by Zvi and Scott Alexander.