I think mostly I expect us to continue to overestimate the sanity and integrity of most of the world, then get fucked over like we got fucked over by OpenAI or FTX. I think there are ways to relating to the rest of the world that would be much better, but a naive update in the direction of “just trust other people more” would likely make things worse.
[...] Again, I think the question you are raising is crucial, and I have giant warning flags about a bunch of the things that are going on (the foremost one is that it sure really is a time to reflect on your relation to the world when a very prominent member of your community just stole 8 billion dollars of innocent people’s money and committed the largest fraud since Enron), [...]
I very much agree with the sentiment of the second paragraph.
Regarding the first paragraph, my own take is that (many) EAs and rationalists might be wise to trust themselves and their allies less.[1]
The main update of the FTX fiasco (and other events I’ll describe later) I’d make is that perhaps many/most EAs and rationalists aren’t very good at character judgment. They probably trust other EAs and rationalists too readily because they are part of the same tribe and automatically assume that agreeing with noble ideas in the abstract translates to noble behavior in practice.
(To clarify, you personally seem to be good at character judgment, so this message is not directed at you. (I base that mostly on your comments I read about the SBF situation, big kudos for that, btw!)
It seems like a non-trivial fraction of people that joined the EA and rationalist community very early turned out to be of questionable character, and this wasn’t noticed for years by large parts of the community. I have in mind people like Anissimov, Helm, Dill, SBF, Geoff Anders, arguably Vassar—these are just the known ones. Most of them were not just part of the movement, they were allowed to occupy highly influential positions. I don’t know what the base rate for such people is in other movements—it’s plausibly even higher—but as a whole our movements don’t seem to be fantastic at spotting sketchy people quickly. (FWIW, my personal experiences with a sketchy, early EA (not on the above list) inspired this post.)
My own takeaway is that perhaps EAs and rationalists aren’t that much better in terms of integrity than the outside world and—given that we probably have to coordinate with some people to get anything done—I’m now more willing to coordinate with “outsiders” than I was, say, eight years ago.
Though I would be hesitant to spread this message; the kinds of people who should trust themselves and their character judgment less are more likely the ones who will not take this message to heart, and vice versa.
I very much agree with the sentiment of the second paragraph.
Regarding the first paragraph, my own take is that (many) EAs and rationalists might be wise to trust themselves and their allies less.[1]
The main update of the FTX fiasco (and other events I’ll describe later) I’d make is that perhaps many/most EAs and rationalists aren’t very good at character judgment. They probably trust other EAs and rationalists too readily because they are part of the same tribe and automatically assume that agreeing with noble ideas in the abstract translates to noble behavior in practice.
(To clarify, you personally seem to be good at character judgment, so this message is not directed at you. (I base that mostly on your comments I read about the SBF situation, big kudos for that, btw!)
It seems like a non-trivial fraction of people that joined the EA and rationalist community very early turned out to be of questionable character, and this wasn’t noticed for years by large parts of the community. I have in mind people like Anissimov, Helm, Dill, SBF, Geoff Anders, arguably Vassar—these are just the known ones. Most of them were not just part of the movement, they were allowed to occupy highly influential positions. I don’t know what the base rate for such people is in other movements—it’s plausibly even higher—but as a whole our movements don’t seem to be fantastic at spotting sketchy people quickly. (FWIW, my personal experiences with a sketchy, early EA (not on the above list) inspired this post.)
My own takeaway is that perhaps EAs and rationalists aren’t that much better in terms of integrity than the outside world and—given that we probably have to coordinate with some people to get anything done—I’m now more willing to coordinate with “outsiders” than I was, say, eight years ago.
Though I would be hesitant to spread this message; the kinds of people who should trust themselves and their character judgment less are more likely the ones who will not take this message to heart, and vice versa.