As we shift from one paradigm of advancement to another, we may still have exponential growth, but the exponent for the new exponential growth paradigm may be quite different.
Won’t the rate of economic growth be different (much larger) by definition? I can’t envisage a scenario where economic growth could be roughly as it is now or slower but we have experienced anything even approaching a technological singularity. Think of the change in growth rates resulting from the farming and industrial revolutions.
Something to puzzle over is the fact we have seen computational grunt grow exponentially for decade upon decade yet economic growth has been stable over the same period.
Won’t the rate of economic growth be different (much larger) by definition?
Depends on the reason for the switch to a new paradigm. If the reason is that there are even more attractive options, then economic growth would accelerate. If the reasons are that we’re running out of demand for improvement across the board, and people are more satisfied with their lives, and the technological low-hanging fruit are taken, then economic growth could be lower.
I see. The demand side story. I suppose it is technically feasible but I find it unlikely in the extreme. There is nothing in history to suggest it and I don’t think it fits with psychology. History is full of examples of how we won’t want for anything after we have ‘some foreseen progress’. We’ve had the luxury of being able to trade in some economic growth for more leisure, and still be better off than our grandparents, for a long time now, but haven’t.
If the reasons are that we’re running out of demand for improvement across the board, and people are more satisfied with their lives, and the technological low-hanging fruit are taken, then economic growth could be lower.
Do you mean lower than it is now? After a paradigm shift in advancement?
Something to puzzle over is the fact we have seen computational grunt grow exponentially for decade upon decade yet economic growth has been stable over the same period.
Economic growth itself is an exponential function. “The economy grows 3% every year” is exponential growth, not linear growth. I would say that it’s only happened because of exponential technological progress; we never had that level of exponential growth until the industrial revolution. And I would say that most of the economic growth the first world has had over the past 20 years has come from recent technological advancement, mostly being the twin communication and computer revolutions we’ve had (PC’s, cell phones, internet, smart phones, and some smaller examples of both).
I’m not sure how you got from my comments that I don’t understand exponential growth. But let me remake the point more clearly. The doubling time of economic growth has remained stable at around 15 years. The doubling time of computational processing speed has remained roughly stable at around 24 months.
I agree that economic growth in developed economies in the last 20 years has come largely from tech progress . But it has not had an effect on the rate of economic growth.
I would say that it’s only happened because of exponential technological progress; we never had that level of exponential growth until the industrial revolution.
Long term global growth is achieved only through tech progress. We didn’t have this rate of economic growth before the industrial revolution, that’s true. It wasn’t experienced during the agricultural phase. But foragers didn’t enjoy the same growth rate as farmers. The rate of economic growth has not increased since well before the introduction of computers.
Won’t the rate of economic growth be different (much larger) by definition? I can’t envisage a scenario where economic growth could be roughly as it is now or slower but we have experienced anything even approaching a technological singularity. Think of the change in growth rates resulting from the farming and industrial revolutions.
Something to puzzle over is the fact we have seen computational grunt grow exponentially for decade upon decade yet economic growth has been stable over the same period.
Depends on the reason for the switch to a new paradigm. If the reason is that there are even more attractive options, then economic growth would accelerate. If the reasons are that we’re running out of demand for improvement across the board, and people are more satisfied with their lives, and the technological low-hanging fruit are taken, then economic growth could be lower.
I see. The demand side story. I suppose it is technically feasible but I find it unlikely in the extreme. There is nothing in history to suggest it and I don’t think it fits with psychology. History is full of examples of how we won’t want for anything after we have ‘some foreseen progress’. We’ve had the luxury of being able to trade in some economic growth for more leisure, and still be better off than our grandparents, for a long time now, but haven’t.
Do you mean lower than it is now? After a paradigm shift in advancement?
Economic growth itself is an exponential function. “The economy grows 3% every year” is exponential growth, not linear growth. I would say that it’s only happened because of exponential technological progress; we never had that level of exponential growth until the industrial revolution. And I would say that most of the economic growth the first world has had over the past 20 years has come from recent technological advancement, mostly being the twin communication and computer revolutions we’ve had (PC’s, cell phones, internet, smart phones, and some smaller examples of both).
I’m not sure how you got from my comments that I don’t understand exponential growth. But let me remake the point more clearly. The doubling time of economic growth has remained stable at around 15 years. The doubling time of computational processing speed has remained roughly stable at around 24 months. I agree that economic growth in developed economies in the last 20 years has come largely from tech progress . But it has not had an effect on the rate of economic growth.
Long term global growth is achieved only through tech progress. We didn’t have this rate of economic growth before the industrial revolution, that’s true. It wasn’t experienced during the agricultural phase. But foragers didn’t enjoy the same growth rate as farmers. The rate of economic growth has not increased since well before the introduction of computers.