We are talking about a runaway scenario in a human civilization, aren’t we?
I don’t think that’s possible. Do you? A runaway means a massive and ongoing boost in productivity. That seems achievable only by AI, full brain emulations, or transhumans that are much smarter and faster at doing stuff than humans can be.
So what does it mean?
I was agreeing (mostly). My point was that by that definition we could never predict, or even know that we are in the middle of, a runway scenario. I did pose it as a question and you did not reply with an answer. So what do you think? If the doubling time in economic output decreased by 35 times over the next 2, or even 4 decades, would you think we are in a runaway scenario?
I did not mean to imply that situation in quote 1 would happen within the timeframe of quote 2, and I don’t think i did. It’s a thought experiment and I think that is clear.
And, by the way, understanding that you lost control is how you know you’re in a runaway scenario.
There are examples of this in real history from smart people who thought we’d lost control—see Samuel Butler. We have, arguably. The extent to which machines are now integral to continued economic prosperity is irreversible without unbearable costs (people will die).
We are talking about a runaway scenario in a human civilization, aren’t we?
So what does it mean?
I don’t think that’s possible. Do you? A runaway means a massive and ongoing boost in productivity. That seems achievable only by AI, full brain emulations, or transhumans that are much smarter and faster at doing stuff than humans can be.
I was agreeing (mostly). My point was that by that definition we could never predict, or even know that we are in the middle of, a runway scenario. I did pose it as a question and you did not reply with an answer. So what do you think? If the doubling time in economic output decreased by 35 times over the next 2, or even 4 decades, would you think we are in a runaway scenario?
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Situation in quote 1 will not happen within the time frame in quote 2.
Generally speaking, I understand “runaway” as “unstoppable”, meaning both that it won’t stop on its own (stall) and that we lost control over it.
And, by the way, understanding that you lost control is how you know you’re in a runaway scenario.
I did not mean to imply that situation in quote 1 would happen within the timeframe of quote 2, and I don’t think i did. It’s a thought experiment and I think that is clear.
There are examples of this in real history from smart people who thought we’d lost control—see Samuel Butler. We have, arguably. The extent to which machines are now integral to continued economic prosperity is irreversible without unbearable costs (people will die).
I am confused. What is a thought experiment?
My impression is that you are now evading questions and being deliberately provocative; but I’ll play...
If the rate economic growth were to increase by x35, would you think you were in a runaway scenario?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thought_experiment
When I’m being deliberately provocative, it’s… more noticeable :-D I also know what a thought experiment is.
What I was confused about is exactly which part of the whole discussion about exponential growth did you consider to be a thought experiment.
If that were the only piece of information that I had, no, I would not think so. Insufficient data.