This sort of technical analysis is usually nonsense. Is there any reason to think this case is better? This person claims a strong track record of predicting market crashes on particular dates. Here’s an example from July 2016; he says to look out for trouble in the Dow Jones (1) between 2016-08-26 and 2016-08-30, (2) on 2016-09-26, and (3) on 2016-10-20. No prizes for guessing the outcome: the Dow Jones was just fine on and around all three of those dates.
(That example was the first one I found, by the way. No cherrypicking on my part.)
So I think he’s a bullshitter who makes a lot of predictions and then afterwards points to the ones that happened to be somewhere in the vicinity of the truth.
[EDITED to add:]
One reason articles like this call him a “crash guru” is that he allegedly predicted the “flash crash” of August 2015. But let’s just look a little more closely at these impressive results (which you can be sure are the ones he quotes to impress journalists):
On July 31, 2015, the chart specialist went on CNBC and warned of a major volatile move to come between Aug. 7 and 18, which turned out to be the so-called “flash crash” of Aug. 24. He also flagged another period to be careful of — Sept. 13 to Sept. 23.
He then went back on CNBC on Aug. 28, 2015, and told viewers there would be a drop on Sept. 14 or 17. A nearly 290-point plunge hit the Dow industrials on Sept. 18; the index proceeded to lose more even ground over several trading days.
Looks good. Until you actually read carefully. This lists three predictions. (1) A major volatile move between the 7th and 18th of August. Allegedly fulfilled by a crash on … the 24th of August. Nope, sorry, if you quote a particular date range then something happening outside that date range does not count as a correct prediction. (2) A “period to be careful of” between the 13th and 23rd of September. The DJIA was just fine during that period. (3) A drop on the 14th or 17th of September. Allegedly fulfilled by a drop on the 18th. Nope, if you predict specific dates then something on a different date does not count as a correct prediction.
What actually happened: the DJIA was pretty stable through the “major volatile move” period. Then a week later it had a crash which Jadeja didn’t predict. Then it was rather volatile for a month or so, a period in which Jadeja mentioned a couple of specific bad dates that were in fact no worse than any others during that volatile period.
So, again, I reckon: bullshitter with no actual predictive ability.
This sort of technical analysis is usually nonsense. Is there any reason to think this case is better? This person claims a strong track record of predicting market crashes on particular dates. Here’s an example from July 2016; he says to look out for trouble in the Dow Jones (1) between 2016-08-26 and 2016-08-30, (2) on 2016-09-26, and (3) on 2016-10-20. No prizes for guessing the outcome: the Dow Jones was just fine on and around all three of those dates.
(That example was the first one I found, by the way. No cherrypicking on my part.)
So I think he’s a bullshitter who makes a lot of predictions and then afterwards points to the ones that happened to be somewhere in the vicinity of the truth.
[EDITED to add:]
One reason articles like this call him a “crash guru” is that he allegedly predicted the “flash crash” of August 2015. But let’s just look a little more closely at these impressive results (which you can be sure are the ones he quotes to impress journalists):
Looks good. Until you actually read carefully. This lists three predictions. (1) A major volatile move between the 7th and 18th of August. Allegedly fulfilled by a crash on … the 24th of August. Nope, sorry, if you quote a particular date range then something happening outside that date range does not count as a correct prediction. (2) A “period to be careful of” between the 13th and 23rd of September. The DJIA was just fine during that period. (3) A drop on the 14th or 17th of September. Allegedly fulfilled by a drop on the 18th. Nope, if you predict specific dates then something on a different date does not count as a correct prediction.
What actually happened: the DJIA was pretty stable through the “major volatile move” period. Then a week later it had a crash which Jadeja didn’t predict. Then it was rather volatile for a month or so, a period in which Jadeja mentioned a couple of specific bad dates that were in fact no worse than any others during that volatile period.
So, again, I reckon: bullshitter with no actual predictive ability.