Regarding the likelihood of a substantial cease fire soon and Putin’s continued presidency: recent news makes it seam to me like Putin’s administration could be starting to lay the rhetorical groundwork for an exit. Particularly these bits: 1.: Russia announced that it will reduce its operations around Kyiv. I think I read somewhere that they claimed something like “The attack on Kyiv was only made in order to bind Ukranian troops there.” but I can’t find the source now. 2.: Focussing on the Donetsk region. Actually getting control there seems realistic? 3.: Donetsk separatists thinking about a referendum about joining Russia
This might be an exit strategy that maybe could be spun internally in a way that saves Putin’s face: “The primary goal of the Special Military Operation was to stop the Ukrainian genocide of Russian civilians in Donetsk. We achieved that goal! Mission accomplished 🎉! In cooperation with the government in Donetsk, we will leave several battalions of soldiers in the Donetsk area, in order to protect the Russians there from future atrocities.”
And given that Putin massively expanded his administration’s media control and police state in the last month, I would expect that internally he can make that work without anyone important daring to claim that Eurasia was not always at war with Eastasia that they had very radically different war goals in the beginning.
These things together could to me contribute to explain why “Kyiv falls” and “Putin remains president” seem to have become less linked over time.
Thoughts?
PS: Your moderation guidelines say “Norm Enforcing—I try to enforce particular rules”—Where can I read what particular norms you are enforcing? I don’t want to break any out of ignorance.
A different perspective: Putin might cease to be the russian president due to a bunch of reasons (health, assassination, coup, …). One of those reasons is “overthrown due to military defeat of the russian army in Kyiv”. Now the defeat kind of happened, but Putin is still president. How should we update here? One might well argue: There are worlds in which failure to take Kyiv lead to Putin being overthrown quickly. We’re not in one of those worlds, so his chances to stay in power go up.
Thanks!
Regarding the likelihood of a substantial cease fire soon and Putin’s continued presidency: recent news makes it seam to me like Putin’s administration could be starting to lay the rhetorical groundwork for an exit. Particularly these bits:
1.: Russia announced that it will reduce its operations around Kyiv. I think I read somewhere that they claimed something like “The attack on Kyiv was only made in order to bind Ukranian troops there.” but I can’t find the source now.
2.: Focussing on the Donetsk region. Actually getting control there seems realistic?
3.: Donetsk separatists thinking about a referendum about joining Russia
This might be an exit strategy that maybe could be spun internally in a way that saves Putin’s face: “The primary goal of the Special Military Operation was to stop the Ukrainian genocide of Russian civilians in Donetsk. We achieved that goal! Mission accomplished 🎉! In cooperation with the government in Donetsk, we will leave several battalions of soldiers in the Donetsk area, in order to protect the Russians there from future atrocities.”
And given that Putin massively expanded his administration’s media control and police state in the last month, I would expect that internally he can make that work without anyone important daring to claim
that Eurasia was not always at war with Eastasiathat they had very radically different war goals in the beginning.These things together could to me contribute to explain why “Kyiv falls” and “Putin remains president” seem to have become less linked over time.
Thoughts?
PS: Your moderation guidelines say “Norm Enforcing—I try to enforce particular rules”—Where can I read what particular norms you are enforcing? I don’t want to break any out of ignorance.
A different perspective: Putin might cease to be the russian president due to a bunch of reasons (health, assassination, coup, …). One of those reasons is “overthrown due to military defeat of the russian army in Kyiv”. Now the defeat kind of happened, but Putin is still president. How should we update here? One might well argue: There are worlds in which failure to take Kyiv lead to Putin being overthrown quickly. We’re not in one of those worlds, so his chances to stay in power go up.