A different perspective: Putin might cease to be the russian president due to a bunch of reasons (health, assassination, coup, …). One of those reasons is “overthrown due to military defeat of the russian army in Kyiv”. Now the defeat kind of happened, but Putin is still president. How should we update here? One might well argue: There are worlds in which failure to take Kyiv lead to Putin being overthrown quickly. We’re not in one of those worlds, so his chances to stay in power go up.
A different perspective: Putin might cease to be the russian president due to a bunch of reasons (health, assassination, coup, …). One of those reasons is “overthrown due to military defeat of the russian army in Kyiv”. Now the defeat kind of happened, but Putin is still president. How should we update here? One might well argue: There are worlds in which failure to take Kyiv lead to Putin being overthrown quickly. We’re not in one of those worlds, so his chances to stay in power go up.