I don’t understand why people are calling Metaculus a prediction market. There’s no buying or selling going on, even in play money. There’s a score, but score doesn’t affect the community estimate, which is just a median of all user predictions weighted by recency. I think it ends up doing pretty well, but calling it a market (which it doesn’t call itself) will give readers a mistaken impression of how it works.
I don’t understand why people are calling Metaculus a prediction market. There’s no buying or selling going on, even in play money. There’s a score, but score doesn’t affect the community estimate, which is just a median of all user predictions weighted by recency. I think it ends up doing pretty well, but calling it a market (which it doesn’t call itself) will give readers a mistaken impression of how it works.