If you’re not running on instincts then you might want to be particularly careful with your beliefs in this area...
Peak fertility is different that the optimal age for a first child. Fertility is much easier to measure (based simply on the probability of getting pregnant given an standard opportunity to do so) whereas the best age to have your first child is a ridiculously complicated calculation having to do with your values and goals plus: the current and future state of medicine, the current and future state of the economy, your current and future pool of partnering opportunities, and probably other stuff as well.
Azathoth (who doesn’t know about fertility medicine or transhumanism or the singularity yet, and was informed of the pill one or two “clock cycles” ago) probably thinks it is a good idea to be very fertile near the end of one’s period of fertility because it’s your last chance to have your last kid, even if the probability of birth defects is substantially higher.
In the modern democratic/industrialized environments, women don’t have replacement levels of children. This might be “good” if we’re all looking around and correctly determining that the population should be lower and 0,1, or 2 “really well raised” kids are better than 8 “poorly raised” kids. Alternatively, this might be “bad” if our parenting instincts are just going crazy in this environment. Like it could be that if/when we’re well informed 70 year olds who resist cognitive dissonance we might look back on current reproductive decisions with justifiable regret.
In the (justifiably controversial) book The Bell Curve, the authors claim that before the advent of SATs, merit-based scholarships, and a universal college expectation for smart people, society was different in many ways, including that people in college were more likely to have rich parents but otherwise had the same intelligence as everyone else, and also that higher IQ predicted early marriage, early parenthood, less divorce, and larger total family sizes. I have never been able to find something peer-reviewed to back their historical claims, but it’s one of those head scratchers that make me wonder sometimes about the larger socio-demographic picture and whether there is some kind of mass craziness going on with respect to family planning in WEIRD countries.
One more factor—I think people are less likely to have children (or many children) if they trust that larger social structures (private and/or public pensions and provisions for care) will support them when they get old.
I believe that WEIRD (and we probably drop the “white” because the meme definitely spreads to other races) cultures are unsustainable at present tech because the birth rate is too low.
If you’re not running on instincts then you might want to be particularly careful with your beliefs in this area...
Peak fertility is different that the optimal age for a first child. Fertility is much easier to measure (based simply on the probability of getting pregnant given an standard opportunity to do so) whereas the best age to have your first child is a ridiculously complicated calculation having to do with your values and goals plus: the current and future state of medicine, the current and future state of the economy, your current and future pool of partnering opportunities, and probably other stuff as well.
Azathoth (who doesn’t know about fertility medicine or transhumanism or the singularity yet, and was informed of the pill one or two “clock cycles” ago) probably thinks it is a good idea to be very fertile near the end of one’s period of fertility because it’s your last chance to have your last kid, even if the probability of birth defects is substantially higher.
In the modern democratic/industrialized environments, women don’t have replacement levels of children. This might be “good” if we’re all looking around and correctly determining that the population should be lower and 0,1, or 2 “really well raised” kids are better than 8 “poorly raised” kids. Alternatively, this might be “bad” if our parenting instincts are just going crazy in this environment. Like it could be that if/when we’re well informed 70 year olds who resist cognitive dissonance we might look back on current reproductive decisions with justifiable regret.
In the (justifiably controversial) book The Bell Curve, the authors claim that before the advent of SATs, merit-based scholarships, and a universal college expectation for smart people, society was different in many ways, including that people in college were more likely to have rich parents but otherwise had the same intelligence as everyone else, and also that higher IQ predicted early marriage, early parenthood, less divorce, and larger total family sizes. I have never been able to find something peer-reviewed to back their historical claims, but it’s one of those head scratchers that make me wonder sometimes about the larger socio-demographic picture and whether there is some kind of mass craziness going on with respect to family planning in WEIRD countries.
One more factor—I think people are less likely to have children (or many children) if they trust that larger social structures (private and/or public pensions and provisions for care) will support them when they get old.
I believe that WEIRD (and we probably drop the “white” because the meme definitely spreads to other races) cultures are unsustainable at present tech because the birth rate is too low.