Maybe you just don’t see the effects yet? It takes a long time for things to take effect, even internally in places you wouldn’t have access to, and even longer for them to be externally visible. Personally, I read approximately everything you (Elizabeth) write on the Forum and LW, and occasionally cite it to others in EA leadership world. That’s why I’m pretty sure your work has had nontrivial impact. I am not too surprised that its impact hasn’t become apparent to you though.
I’ve repeatedly had interactions with ~leadership EA that asks me to assume there’s a shadow EA cabal (positive valence) that is both skilled and aligned with my values. Or puts the burden on me to prove it doesn’t exist, which of course I can’t do. And what you’re saying here is close enough to trigger the rant.
I would love for the aligned shadow cabal to be real. I would especially love if the reason I didn’t know how wonderful it was was that it was so hypercompetent I wasn’t worth including, despite the value match. But I’m not going to assume it exists just because I can’t definitively prove otherwise.
If shadow EA wants my approval, it can show me the evidence. If it decides my approval isn’t worth the work, it can accept my disapproval while continuing its more important work. I am being 100% sincere here, I treasure the right to take action without having to reach consensus- but this doesn’t spare you from the consequences of hidden action or reasoning.
I think I actually agree with Lincoln here and think he was saying a different thing than your comment here seems to be oriented around.
I don’t think Lincoln’s comment had much to do with assuming there was a shadow EA cabal that was aligned with your values. He said “your words are having an impact.”
Words having impacts just does actually take time. I updated from stuff Ben Hoffman said, but it did take 3-4 years or something for the update to fully happen (for me in particular), and when I did ~finish updating the amount I was going to update, it wasn’t exactly the way Ben Hoffman wanted. In the first 3 years, it’s not like I can show Ben Hoffman “I am ready for your approval”, or even that I’ve concretely updated any particular way, because it was a slow messy process and it wasn’t like I knew for sure how close to his camp I was going to land.
But, it wouldn’t have been true to say “his critiques dropped like a stone through water”. (Habryka has said they also affected him, and this seems generally to have actually reveberated a lot).
I don’t know whether or not your critiques have landed, but I think it is too soon to judge.
How much are you arguing about wording, vs genuinely believe and would bet money that in 3-5 years my work will have moved EA to something I can live with?
I definitely wouldn’t bet money that EA will have evolved into something you can live with (Neither EA nor the threads of rationality that he affeted evolved into things Ben Hoffman could live with)
But, I do think there is something important about the fact that, despite that, it is inaccurate to say “the critiques dropped like a stone through water” (or, what I interpret that poetry to mean, which is something like “basically nobody listened at all”. I don’t think I misunderstood that part but if I did then I do retract my claim)
The thing I would bet is “your ‘build a lifeboat for some people-like-you to move to somewhere other than EA’ plan will work at least a bit, and, one of the important mechanisms for it working will be those effortful posts you wrote.”
I’ve repeatedly had interactions with ~leadership EA that asks me to assume there’s a shadow EA cabal (positive valence) that is both skilled and aligned with my values. Or puts the burden on me to prove it doesn’t exist, which of course I can’t do. And what you’re saying here is close enough to trigger the rant.
I would love for the aligned shadow cabal to be real. I would especially love if the reason I didn’t know how wonderful it was was that it was so hypercompetent I wasn’t worth including, despite the value match. But I’m not going to assume it exists just because I can’t definitively prove otherwise.
If shadow EA wants my approval, it can show me the evidence. If it decides my approval isn’t worth the work, it can accept my disapproval while continuing its more important work. I am being 100% sincere here, I treasure the right to take action without having to reach consensus- but this doesn’t spare you from the consequences of hidden action or reasoning.
I think I actually agree with Lincoln here and think he was saying a different thing than your comment here seems to be oriented around.
I don’t think Lincoln’s comment had much to do with assuming there was a shadow EA cabal that was aligned with your values. He said “your words are having an impact.”
Words having impacts just does actually take time. I updated from stuff Ben Hoffman said, but it did take 3-4 years or something for the update to fully happen (for me in particular), and when I did ~finish updating the amount I was going to update, it wasn’t exactly the way Ben Hoffman wanted. In the first 3 years, it’s not like I can show Ben Hoffman “I am ready for your approval”, or even that I’ve concretely updated any particular way, because it was a slow messy process and it wasn’t like I knew for sure how close to his camp I was going to land.
But, it wouldn’t have been true to say “his critiques dropped like a stone through water”. (Habryka has said they also affected him, and this seems generally to have actually reveberated a lot).
I don’t know whether or not your critiques have landed, but I think it is too soon to judge.
How much are you arguing about wording, vs genuinely believe and would bet money that in 3-5 years my work will have moved EA to something I can live with?
I definitely wouldn’t bet money that EA will have evolved into something you can live with (Neither EA nor the threads of rationality that he affeted evolved into things Ben Hoffman could live with)
But, I do think there is something important about the fact that, despite that, it is inaccurate to say “the critiques dropped like a stone through water” (or, what I interpret that poetry to mean, which is something like “basically nobody listened at all”. I don’t think I misunderstood that part but if I did then I do retract my claim)
The thing I would bet is “your ‘build a lifeboat for some people-like-you to move to somewhere other than EA’ plan will work at least a bit, and, one of the important mechanisms for it working will be those effortful posts you wrote.”