Certainly if you can predict applications, then you can do as-applied patents. I’m not sure that MIRI or whoever has any particular advantage in predicting applications.
Also, what you can get with a patent is mostly licensing fees. If you try to stop someone from using something, you’re looking at years of litigation. In a fast takeoff scenario that doesn’t actually get you anything—by the time litigation is over, so is the game.
Certainly if you can predict applications, then you can do as-applied patents. I’m not sure that MIRI or whoever has any particular advantage in predicting applications.
Also, what you can get with a patent is mostly licensing fees. If you try to stop someone from using something, you’re looking at years of litigation. In a fast takeoff scenario that doesn’t actually get you anything—by the time litigation is over, so is the game.