There is a second human bias that causes you to cache an unrealistically high summary statistic for how often you change your mind: you think you change your mind, in general, pretty often, but unless you are an expert, highly-practiced rationalist, odds are that you do not. As evidence, try thinking of the last time you changed your mind about something and force yourself to specify what you believed beforehand and what you believed afterward. Me personally, I haven’t changed my mind about anything that I can remember since about November 10th, 2010, and I’m sure I’ve expressed thousands of opinions since then. The odds are long.
It is interesting to hear you say that. I would not go as far as to contradict you but I would be equally unsurprised to find out that I changed my mind more than I thought I did. This too is a human bias that crops up all the time, albeit in different circumstances. People are quite capable of completely changing their beliefs to a new belief that they sincerely believe they had all along.
This is a miscalibration that can go either way depending on which way the ego is pulling at the time.
I think that most people don’t really update their far beliefs particularly frequently, but when in near mode will completely contradict their far beliefs when acting. Does that count as changing their mind?
Or do you also mean that people just consciously change their mind too?
Or do you also mean that people just consciously change their mind too?
I think I mean “unconsciously change their conscious beliefs”. As an example I have found myself arguing on a different side of a debate to what I had argued in the past and thought “Oh, look at me. I’m all human and stuff with the changing my mind after the fact.”
This is one of those things where, on first reading, I just accepted the OP’s assertion without question, but now having had it pointed out to me, I want data! So, if anyone knows, it must be someone at LW. Do people change their minds more often or less often than they think? For what values of “change their minds”?
It is interesting to hear you say that. I would not go as far as to contradict you but I would be equally unsurprised to find out that I changed my mind more than I thought I did. This too is a human bias that crops up all the time, albeit in different circumstances. People are quite capable of completely changing their beliefs to a new belief that they sincerely believe they had all along.
This is a miscalibration that can go either way depending on which way the ego is pulling at the time.
I think that most people don’t really update their far beliefs particularly frequently, but when in near mode will completely contradict their far beliefs when acting. Does that count as changing their mind?
Or do you also mean that people just consciously change their mind too?
I think I mean “unconsciously change their conscious beliefs”. As an example I have found myself arguing on a different side of a debate to what I had argued in the past and thought “Oh, look at me. I’m all human and stuff with the changing my mind after the fact.”
Excellent point!
This is one of those things where, on first reading, I just accepted the OP’s assertion without question, but now having had it pointed out to me, I want data! So, if anyone knows, it must be someone at LW. Do people change their minds more often or less often than they think? For what values of “change their minds”?
I would like to read something more in depth about this. Could you write up a post, or link to an article about it or something?