Take any well-divided political issue, and you’ll find people on both sides building up detailed stories that show what it is exactly that ought to convince any reasonable person, but fails to convince their opponents due to their ideological bias. Such stories are almost always wrong. Typically they do one or several of: (i) exaggerate the evidence or misrepresent its degree of uncertainty; (ii) ignore conflicting evidence to the other direction; (iii) tacitly assume a host of underlying convictions that are only obvious to your side; (iv) ignore any number of ways the other side could find to explain your evidence without changing their beliefs, not all of them contrived.
A good analysis of what it is that makes politics (or at least American politics) a mind killer. In fact, worse than a mind killer. The habit of convincing yourself that those who disagree with you are subrational (and intellectually dishonest to boot) is the community killer—it is the first step in a rationalization of disenfranchisement.
Are there other subjects besides politics which lead to the same dehumanization of the people who disagree? I think so. One sees it frequently in theological disputes, pretty often in ethical disputes, and occasionally when discussing interactions between the sexes. But very rarely in discussions of the arts, music, spectator sports teams, grammar, and even nutritional practices—even though tribalism is common enough in these areas, no one tries to paint their opponents as either fools or knaves. Why the difference—is it just because these topics are less important than politics?
According to Aumann, we should be able to agree to disagree only if one of the following is the case:
We have different priors (or different fundamental values)
One of us is irrational
We don’t trust each other to report facts and beliefs truthfully
We just don’t talk enough.
So, if Aumann is to be believed, in those cases where we do talk enough, and in which we claim to share priors and fundamental values, disagreement is likely to turn nasty.
ETA: HT to Plasmon for pointing out the counter-intuitive fact that disagreement may be less nasty when divergence of fundamental values is acknowledged.
I don’t think the current state of American politics is a result of structural problems—it’s gotten a lot worse as far as I can tell in the past decade or so. I don’t know who started it, or who’s done the most to amplify matters, but I think Republicans and Democrats have become a lot more contemptuous of each other.
American politics has gotten steadily more partisan over the last several decades, mostly as a result of desegregation. While the south was under an apartheid regime many Republicans (“Rockefeller Republicans”) were to the left of Democrats (“Dixiecrats.”) This is no longer the case; every Democratic senator is to the left of every Republican senator—if you have strong politics yourself, the absolute distance looks small, but the lack of mixture is an undeniable fact. The decreased importance of regional party machines plays into this as well. Parties now function much more like coherent policy packages, so legislators have less allies outside of their own party.
While the south was under an apartheid regime many Republicans (“Rockefeller Republicans”) were to the left of Democrats (“Dixiecrats.”) This is no longer the case; every Democratic senator is to the left of every Republican senator
Desegregation isn’t irrelevant to what has happened to American politics- but this doesn’t have anything to do with where senators are on an arbitrary political spectrum. The particular manifestation of the left-right political spectrum you have in mind here is the invention of the post-segregation political climate. Pre-desegregation issues didn’t break down into positions corresponding to our current political spectrum.
Pre-desegregation issues didn’t break down into positions corresponding to our current political spectrum.
That’s probably a better way of phrasing it. Perhaps I should have said that great majority of variance in political opinion today can be explained with one eigenvector while pre-segregation it would have taken two. Either way, the greater level of ideological coherence is responsible, I think.
So, if Aumann is to be believed, in those cases where we do talk enough, and in which we claim to share priors and fundamental values, disagreement is likely to turn nasty.
it’s gotten a lot worse as far as I can tell in the past decade or so.
I agree it has gotten worse, though I would trace it back at least to the Bork nomination fight. So, if I want to stick to my AAT-based explanation of the facts, I need to claim either that we have only recently started claiming to have the same fundamental values, or that we are talking more.
I believe that there has been a convergence regarding claimed values, over that period, but the situation regarding communication is more complicated. Political activists (and they are exactly the people who have poisonous attitudes about the opposition) probably do communicate more, but they do so over completely distorted channels. Democrats learn about what Republicans are saying from the Daily Show, the Onion, and Pharyngula. Republican learn what Democrats are saying from Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck. I suppose the real question is why today’s activists seem to think that these channels are sufficient.
Perhaps people would always have preferred those kinds of channels, but in the past they just weren’t available.
Perhaps people would always have preferred those kinds of channels, but in the past they just weren’t available.
Talk radio’s been around for a while, and TV pundits only a little less so, so I’d hesitate to blame either one. The political blog scene might be more directly involved; it’s highly polarized, has excellent visibility among politically aware individuals, tends to be kind of incestuous, and coincides roughly with the 10-year timeframe we’re discussing.
I think existing structural problems were dramatically magnified by the modern media environment. The growth of politically involved evangelicalism is also relevant.
Except in American politics all of those are always the case. You just can’t agree to disagree when the outcome of the argument influences who gets to be in charge of how much people are taxed, how much people get through social welfare and who gets thrown in prison.
Lets not make the mistake of thinking political discourse is in anyway about trying convince your opponents to change your minds- it’s about trying to convince the small portion of the electorate that hasn’t made up its mind that your opponents can’t be trusted.
Actually… it’s a prisoners dilemma and that might explain why the problem is worse in the American system. Cooperating would be communicating and debating honestly to sort out who is right. Defecting means using lies, distortions and nefarious tactics to look better than your opponent. Cooperation would make both parties look better but either party increases their chances of victory by defecting. And if you think the other party is going to defect you have to defect or else you’ll lose. So the strategy of of Domination leads to both parties defecting, as in the prisoner’s dilemma.
But in a multi-party system you a) have other agents that can punish defectors by not forming coalitions with them and b) a means by which the electorate can punish defectors… they have someone else to vote for. So the game here is the prisoner’s dilemma with additional agents able and willing to punish defectors.
This actually seems like a sound structural analysis most of us could agree on- perhaps these kind of institutional questions can provide a rational foothold on political questions.
Your Prisoner’s Dilemma argument seems appealing—until you realize that electoral politics is an iterated game. The two players ought to be able to achieve an agreement. It is definitely not a zero-sum game. Both parties have a shared interest in keeping the country governable. They have apparently already discovered the virtues of Tit-for-Tat retaliation. Now if only the electorate were to provide a little added payoff to whichever side first makes an effort to be ‘nice’.
I once attended a business (soft skills) training seminar in which a variant of the Prisoner’s Dilemma was played. Two teams played PD against each other. But, within each team, it required a consensus decision (100% vote) to cause the team to cooperate. If any team member votes to defect, then the team as a whole must defect. The relevance to the question of civility between political parties should be obvious.
until you realize that electoral politics is an iterated game.
Only if you model each political party as the same entity over time. But Presidents are term-limited and losing in a general election often means a leadership change for the party. For some individual legislators the relevant time horizon is never more than two years away (and as in your training seminar, it only takes a few bad apples).
It is definitely not a zero-sum game. Both parties have a shared interested in keeping the country governable.
But this is a game-of-chicken-like incentive. They have incentive to swerve when the cars get too close, like maybe they’ll sit together for a speech after one of them is nearly killed in an assassination attempt; but that isn’t sufficient for general cooperation.
Now if only the electorate were to provide a little added payoff to whichever side first makes an effort to be ‘nice’.
Sure, it would be nice if defecting was counter productive- but the fact that the electorate always falls for the defection is what makes it a prisoner’s dilemma.
In any case, at this point both parties (though, I’d say the Republicans in particular) have pre-committed to defecting for the foreseeable future. When you use dehumanizing rhetoric to describe the opposition your allies will see compromise as treachery. In this case, you’ll face a well-funded primary challenge from your party’s ideological extreme. This can be useful if you want to be pre-committed into voting a particular way- but obviously it is extremely dangerous when used in a semi-iterated prisoner’s dilemma with certain high risks associated with D/D.
Every time I interact with you I think for a minute that you must be from Russia… heh.
Oh, I’m even more alien than that. I used to be a Republican!
Ha!
Though just to be clear since I might have gotten a downvote or two for the grandparent… I don’t mean to just be trashing Republicans. I think my claim that they are more pre-committed to defecting for the foreseeable future is justified by an objective consideration of the strength and organization of their class of activists and ideologues versus that of the Democrats. I don’t think it is mind-killing bias leading me to the conclusion that the Tea-party has had much greater success recently than the netroots or whatever you want to call the equivalent on the Left. I didn’t mean anything evaluative beyond that (I have my opinions but those probably are subject to bias).
(For the record I used to be a partisan, Left-wing Democrat. Now I’m vaguely aligned with that party but mostly for cultural and foreign policy reasons. Where I live, your vote doesn’t count if you’re not a Democrat. Ideologically I’m basically at the liberal-libertarian nexus.)
Why the difference—is it just because these topics are less important than politics?
That’s a really interesting question.
The Aumann analysis works well for politics. It works well for some theological questions, too: it’s a handy explanation for why schismatic branches of a religion often become mutually antagonistic, for example. It isn’t quite a complete description of antagonism when conformity with dogma is a fundamental value, but it’s easy to augment Aumann with that.
When it comes to cultural disagreements, though—arts, music, sports teams—there’s a tacit understanding that people’s priors are different. Appreciating that sort of thing isn’t just about the immediate experience; it can vary depending on who you’re trying to impress, and also on immutable products of upbringing and convenience. And people accept this. No one expects a resident of Oregon to be a Green Bay Packers fan, unless the Packers have been having a particularly good year—and even that comes with a status penalty associated with the expectation of future defection.
A good analysis of what it is that makes politics (or at least American politics) a mind killer. In fact, worse than a mind killer. The habit of convincing yourself that those who disagree with you are subrational (and intellectually dishonest to boot) is the community killer—it is the first step in a rationalization of disenfranchisement.
Are there other subjects besides politics which lead to the same dehumanization of the people who disagree? I think so. One sees it frequently in theological disputes, pretty often in ethical disputes, and occasionally when discussing interactions between the sexes. But very rarely in discussions of the arts, music, spectator sports teams, grammar, and even nutritional practices—even though tribalism is common enough in these areas, no one tries to paint their opponents as either fools or knaves. Why the difference—is it just because these topics are less important than politics?
According to Aumann, we should be able to agree to disagree only if one of the following is the case:
We have different priors (or different fundamental values)
One of us is irrational
We don’t trust each other to report facts and beliefs truthfully
We just don’t talk enough.
So, if Aumann is to be believed, in those cases where we do talk enough, and in which we claim to share priors and fundamental values, disagreement is likely to turn nasty.
ETA: HT to Plasmon for pointing out the counter-intuitive fact that disagreement may be less nasty when divergence of fundamental values is acknowledged.
I don’t think the current state of American politics is a result of structural problems—it’s gotten a lot worse as far as I can tell in the past decade or so. I don’t know who started it, or who’s done the most to amplify matters, but I think Republicans and Democrats have become a lot more contemptuous of each other.
American politics has gotten steadily more partisan over the last several decades, mostly as a result of desegregation. While the south was under an apartheid regime many Republicans (“Rockefeller Republicans”) were to the left of Democrats (“Dixiecrats.”) This is no longer the case; every Democratic senator is to the left of every Republican senator—if you have strong politics yourself, the absolute distance looks small, but the lack of mixture is an undeniable fact. The decreased importance of regional party machines plays into this as well. Parties now function much more like coherent policy packages, so legislators have less allies outside of their own party.
Desegregation isn’t irrelevant to what has happened to American politics- but this doesn’t have anything to do with where senators are on an arbitrary political spectrum. The particular manifestation of the left-right political spectrum you have in mind here is the invention of the post-segregation political climate. Pre-desegregation issues didn’t break down into positions corresponding to our current political spectrum.
That’s probably a better way of phrasing it. Perhaps I should have said that great majority of variance in political opinion today can be explained with one eigenvector while pre-segregation it would have taken two. Either way, the greater level of ideological coherence is responsible, I think.
I suspect that’s just nostalgia filter.
Hard to prove—I’m not nostalgic in general though. For example, I think food’s generally gotten a lot better since the 90s.
A lecture about political rhetoric which shows that the nastiness level can change over time—in particular, it goes into detail about shifts in which words got used in political discourse during the Nazi era.
I can tell you with certainty that Republicans and Democrats didn’t used to have nasty names (Rethuglicans, Libtards) for each other.
I agree it has gotten worse, though I would trace it back at least to the Bork nomination fight. So, if I want to stick to my AAT-based explanation of the facts, I need to claim either that we have only recently started claiming to have the same fundamental values, or that we are talking more.
I believe that there has been a convergence regarding claimed values, over that period, but the situation regarding communication is more complicated. Political activists (and they are exactly the people who have poisonous attitudes about the opposition) probably do communicate more, but they do so over completely distorted channels. Democrats learn about what Republicans are saying from the Daily Show, the Onion, and Pharyngula. Republican learn what Democrats are saying from Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck. I suppose the real question is why today’s activists seem to think that these channels are sufficient.
Perhaps people would always have preferred those kinds of channels, but in the past they just weren’t available.
Talk radio’s been around for a while, and TV pundits only a little less so, so I’d hesitate to blame either one. The political blog scene might be more directly involved; it’s highly polarized, has excellent visibility among politically aware individuals, tends to be kind of incestuous, and coincides roughly with the 10-year timeframe we’re discussing.
I think existing structural problems were dramatically magnified by the modern media environment. The growth of politically involved evangelicalism is also relevant.
Except in American politics all of those are always the case. You just can’t agree to disagree when the outcome of the argument influences who gets to be in charge of how much people are taxed, how much people get through social welfare and who gets thrown in prison.
Lets not make the mistake of thinking political discourse is in anyway about trying convince your opponents to change your minds- it’s about trying to convince the small portion of the electorate that hasn’t made up its mind that your opponents can’t be trusted.
Actually… it’s a prisoners dilemma and that might explain why the problem is worse in the American system. Cooperating would be communicating and debating honestly to sort out who is right. Defecting means using lies, distortions and nefarious tactics to look better than your opponent. Cooperation would make both parties look better but either party increases their chances of victory by defecting. And if you think the other party is going to defect you have to defect or else you’ll lose. So the strategy of of Domination leads to both parties defecting, as in the prisoner’s dilemma.
But in a multi-party system you a) have other agents that can punish defectors by not forming coalitions with them and b) a means by which the electorate can punish defectors… they have someone else to vote for. So the game here is the prisoner’s dilemma with additional agents able and willing to punish defectors.
This actually seems like a sound structural analysis most of us could agree on- perhaps these kind of institutional questions can provide a rational foothold on political questions.
Your Prisoner’s Dilemma argument seems appealing—until you realize that electoral politics is an iterated game. The two players ought to be able to achieve an agreement. It is definitely not a zero-sum game. Both parties have a shared interest in keeping the country governable. They have apparently already discovered the virtues of Tit-for-Tat retaliation. Now if only the electorate were to provide a little added payoff to whichever side first makes an effort to be ‘nice’.
I once attended a business (soft skills) training seminar in which a variant of the Prisoner’s Dilemma was played. Two teams played PD against each other. But, within each team, it required a consensus decision (100% vote) to cause the team to cooperate. If any team member votes to defect, then the team as a whole must defect. The relevance to the question of civility between political parties should be obvious.
Only if you model each political party as the same entity over time. But Presidents are term-limited and losing in a general election often means a leadership change for the party. For some individual legislators the relevant time horizon is never more than two years away (and as in your training seminar, it only takes a few bad apples).
But this is a game-of-chicken-like incentive. They have incentive to swerve when the cars get too close, like maybe they’ll sit together for a speech after one of them is nearly killed in an assassination attempt; but that isn’t sufficient for general cooperation.
Sure, it would be nice if defecting was counter productive- but the fact that the electorate always falls for the defection is what makes it a prisoner’s dilemma.
In any case, at this point both parties (though, I’d say the Republicans in particular) have pre-committed to defecting for the foreseeable future. When you use dehumanizing rhetoric to describe the opposition your allies will see compromise as treachery. In this case, you’ll face a well-funded primary challenge from your party’s ideological extreme. This can be useful if you want to be pre-committed into voting a particular way- but obviously it is extremely dangerous when used in a semi-iterated prisoner’s dilemma with certain high risks associated with D/D.
Every time I interact with you I think for a minute that you must be from Russia… heh.
Thx for that insight. I’ll try to use it in my continuing struggle to promote discounting of expected future utilities.
Oh, I’m even more alien than that. I used to be a Republican!
Ha!
Though just to be clear since I might have gotten a downvote or two for the grandparent… I don’t mean to just be trashing Republicans. I think my claim that they are more pre-committed to defecting for the foreseeable future is justified by an objective consideration of the strength and organization of their class of activists and ideologues versus that of the Democrats. I don’t think it is mind-killing bias leading me to the conclusion that the Tea-party has had much greater success recently than the netroots or whatever you want to call the equivalent on the Left. I didn’t mean anything evaluative beyond that (I have my opinions but those probably are subject to bias).
(For the record I used to be a partisan, Left-wing Democrat. Now I’m vaguely aligned with that party but mostly for cultural and foreign policy reasons. Where I live, your vote doesn’t count if you’re not a Democrat. Ideologically I’m basically at the liberal-libertarian nexus.)
That’s a really interesting question.
The Aumann analysis works well for politics. It works well for some theological questions, too: it’s a handy explanation for why schismatic branches of a religion often become mutually antagonistic, for example. It isn’t quite a complete description of antagonism when conformity with dogma is a fundamental value, but it’s easy to augment Aumann with that.
When it comes to cultural disagreements, though—arts, music, sports teams—there’s a tacit understanding that people’s priors are different. Appreciating that sort of thing isn’t just about the immediate experience; it can vary depending on who you’re trying to impress, and also on immutable products of upbringing and convenience. And people accept this. No one expects a resident of Oregon to be a Green Bay Packers fan, unless the Packers have been having a particularly good year—and even that comes with a status penalty associated with the expectation of future defection.