Russia using nuclear weapons against Ukraine likely hinders the political objectives that are the reason for the war in the first place. I would guess China would back away from Russia at that point.
It is possible that Putins political goals involve dismantling Ukraine along with the complete subjugation of the Ukrainian people. Nuclear weapons could thus have a desired political effect, in addition to their substantial practical effects.
That does seem a little removed from on-the-ground practicality though, and I’d place a not-insignificant weight to Putin getting so caught up in the war that he loses (lost?) sight of his original political objectives. Also, if he thinks China’s lost to him anyway for some reason, or that a show of insane power is the only way to restore his reputation (or something else of that sort), then he may even have some amount of positive incentive to drop a nuke on Ukraine. As long as it won’t start a world war, then I don’t see many scenarios where that wouldn’t pretty much immediately end the fighting with a symbolic victory on his side.
Russia using nuclear weapons against Ukraine likely hinders the political objectives that are the reason for the war in the first place. I would guess China would back away from Russia at that point.
It is possible that Putins political goals involve dismantling Ukraine along with the complete subjugation of the Ukrainian people. Nuclear weapons could thus have a desired political effect, in addition to their substantial practical effects.
That does seem a little removed from on-the-ground practicality though, and I’d place a not-insignificant weight to Putin getting so caught up in the war that he loses (lost?) sight of his original political objectives. Also, if he thinks China’s lost to him anyway for some reason, or that a show of insane power is the only way to restore his reputation (or something else of that sort), then he may even have some amount of positive incentive to drop a nuke on Ukraine. As long as it won’t start a world war, then I don’t see many scenarios where that wouldn’t pretty much immediately end the fighting with a symbolic victory on his side.