I think Poland is a more likely target because Putin probably still has hopes that Russia and Ukraine will unite some day and (correctly IMHO) anticipates that any use of nukes on Ukrainian territory diminishes that hope whereas he probably has given up on Poland’s becoming friendly with Russia. Also, many Russians have family in Ukraine.
The reason for attacking Poland would be to reduce the flow of supplies from Poland to the Ukrainian regime, both “directly” by destroying a road or railroad (maybe at a mountain pass or a bridge) or a logistics center in Poland and by deterring the Polish government (and the governments of the 3 other nations on Ukraine’s western border) from continuing to supply Kyiv (out of fear of more nuclear strikes).
I get the impression that the Russian navy has been preventing ships from supplying Ukraine via the Black Sea to any significant extent. If that is not true, then that would greatly reduce the usefulness of nuking Poland to Russia and consequently would greatly reduce its probability.
Nuking Poland means NATO’s article 5 is activated—France, USA and UK are bound to retaliate with total war against Russia, including nuclear strikes. This is really, really different from nuking Ukraine.
I think Poland is a more likely target because Putin probably still has hopes that Russia and Ukraine will unite some day and (correctly IMHO) anticipates that any use of nukes on Ukrainian territory diminishes that hope whereas he probably has given up on Poland’s becoming friendly with Russia. Also, many Russians have family in Ukraine.
The reason for attacking Poland would be to reduce the flow of supplies from Poland to the Ukrainian regime, both “directly” by destroying a road or railroad (maybe at a mountain pass or a bridge) or a logistics center in Poland and by deterring the Polish government (and the governments of the 3 other nations on Ukraine’s western border) from continuing to supply Kyiv (out of fear of more nuclear strikes).
I get the impression that the Russian navy has been preventing ships from supplying Ukraine via the Black Sea to any significant extent. If that is not true, then that would greatly reduce the usefulness of nuking Poland to Russia and consequently would greatly reduce its probability.
Nuking Poland means NATO’s article 5 is activated—France, USA and UK are bound to retaliate with total war against Russia, including nuclear strikes. This is really, really different from nuking Ukraine.