As a first approximation, if the food production falls to a level of X% of the required calories for the population, your probability of surviving is roughly X%.
Even a full counter-value nuclear exchange would not destroy all of our ability to produce food. Cities would be the primary targets, and they are net importers of food. Civilization might not even collapse with the removal of the 3000 largest cities in the western world.
As a first approximation, if the food production falls to a level of X% of the required calories for the population, your probability of surviving is roughly X%.
...but as a second approximation, post-large-scale nuclear war, if there is only 50% as much food as is required to feed everyone in a major city over a couple months, the ensuing violence and hoarding of the food will likely kill many more people than half. And I’m less sanguine than you about the survival of infrastructure needed to maintain the modern world without major cities, ports, power infrastructure, etc. Sure, there might be enough food overall, but if it’s in a different place than you, and there is no modern communications or transport, that doesn’t matter much. If you already live on a farm, great, but otherwise you’re likely to be in trouble.
As a first approximation, if the food production falls to a level of X% of the required calories for the population, your probability of surviving is roughly X%.
I mean, today food production is significantly more than 100% of the required calories for the population and many people are still food insecure
As a first approximation, if the food production falls to a level of X% of the required calories for the population, your probability of surviving is roughly X%.
Even a full counter-value nuclear exchange would not destroy all of our ability to produce food. Cities would be the primary targets, and they are net importers of food. Civilization might not even collapse with the removal of the 3000 largest cities in the western world.
...but as a second approximation, post-large-scale nuclear war, if there is only 50% as much food as is required to feed everyone in a major city over a couple months, the ensuing violence and hoarding of the food will likely kill many more people than half. And I’m less sanguine than you about the survival of infrastructure needed to maintain the modern world without major cities, ports, power infrastructure, etc. Sure, there might be enough food overall, but if it’s in a different place than you, and there is no modern communications or transport, that doesn’t matter much. If you already live on a farm, great, but otherwise you’re likely to be in trouble.
As a first approximation, if the food production falls to a level of X% of the required calories for the population, your probability of surviving is roughly X%.
I mean, today food production is significantly more than 100% of the required calories for the population and many people are still food insecure