It could well be that P[Observer|Orderly universe] is low (plenty of types of order are uninhabitable) but that P[Orderly universe|Observer] is high since P[Observer|Disorderly universe] is very much lower than P[Observer|Orderly universe].
Yes, it could be. And if this is true, then my line of argument here falls apart entirely.
Another thought is whether there are any universes with no order at all? You are likely imagining a “random” universe with all sorts of unpredictable events, but then are the parts of the universe dependent or independent random variables? If they are dependent, then those dependencies are a form of order. If they are independent, then the universe will satisfy statistical laws (large number laws for instance), so this is also a form of order. Very difficult to imagine a universe with no order.
Huh. A very good point. I was thinking in terms of randomised natural laws—natural laws, in short, that appear to make very little sense—but you raise a good point.
Hmmm… one example of a randomised universe might be one wherein any matter can accelerate in any direction at any time for absolutely no reason, and most matter does so on a fairly regular basis (mean, once a day, standard deviation six months). If the force of the acceleration is low enough (say, one metre per second squared on average, expended for an average of ten seconds), and all the other laws of nature are similar to our universe (so still a mostly orderly universe) then I can easily imagine intelligence arising in such a universe as well.
Hmmm… one example of a randomised universe might be one wherein any matter can accelerate in any direction at any time for absolutely no reason, and most matter does so on a fairly regular basis
Well let’s take that example, since the amount of “random acceleration” can be parameterised. If the parameter is very low, then we’re never going to observe it (so perhaps our universe actually is like this, but we haven’t detected it yet!) If the parameter is very large, then planets (or even stars and galaxies) will get ripped apart long before observers can evolve.
So it seems such a parameter needs to be “tuned” into a relatively narrow range (looking at orders of magnitude here) to get a universe which is still habitable but interestingly-different from the one we see. But then if there were such an interesting parameter, presumably the careful “tuning” would be noticed, and used by theists as the basis of a design argument! But it can’t be the case that both the presence of this random-acceleration phenomenon and its absence are evidence of design, so something has gone wrong here.
If you want a real-word example, think about radioactivity: atoms randomly falling apart for no apparent reason looks awfully like objects suddenly accelerating in random directions for no reason: it’s just the scale that’s very different. Further, if you imagine increasing the strength of the weak nuclear force, you’ll discover that life as we know it becomes impossible… whereas, as far as I know, if there were no weak force at all, life would still be perfectly possible (stars would still shine, because that ’s the strong force, chemical reactions would still work, gravity would still exist and so on). Maybe the Earth would cool down faster, or something along those lines, but it doesn’t seem a major barrier to life. However, the fact that the weak force is “just in the right range” has indeed been used as a “fine-tuning” argument!
Dark energy (or a “cosmological constant”) is another great example, perhaps even closer to what you describe. There is this mysterious unknown force making all galaxies accelerate away from each other, when gravity should be slowing them down. If the dark energy were many orders of magnitude bigger, then stars and galaxies couldn’t form in the first place (no life), but if it were orders of magnitude smaller (or zero), life and observers would get along fine. By plotting on the right scale (e.g. compared to a Planck scale), the dark energy can be made to look suspiciously small and “fine-tuned”, and this is the basis of a design argument.
You raise a good point, and I do indeed see the pattern that you are claiming. I personally suspect that radioactivity, and dark energy, will both turn out to be inextricably linked to the other rules of the universe; I understand that that is already the case for the weak force, apparently a different aspect of electromagnetism (which is exceedingly important for our universe).
Yes, it could be. And if this is true, then my line of argument here falls apart entirely.
Huh. A very good point. I was thinking in terms of randomised natural laws—natural laws, in short, that appear to make very little sense—but you raise a good point.
Hmmm… one example of a randomised universe might be one wherein any matter can accelerate in any direction at any time for absolutely no reason, and most matter does so on a fairly regular basis (mean, once a day, standard deviation six months). If the force of the acceleration is low enough (say, one metre per second squared on average, expended for an average of ten seconds), and all the other laws of nature are similar to our universe (so still a mostly orderly universe) then I can easily imagine intelligence arising in such a universe as well.
Well let’s take that example, since the amount of “random acceleration” can be parameterised. If the parameter is very low, then we’re never going to observe it (so perhaps our universe actually is like this, but we haven’t detected it yet!) If the parameter is very large, then planets (or even stars and galaxies) will get ripped apart long before observers can evolve.
So it seems such a parameter needs to be “tuned” into a relatively narrow range (looking at orders of magnitude here) to get a universe which is still habitable but interestingly-different from the one we see. But then if there were such an interesting parameter, presumably the careful “tuning” would be noticed, and used by theists as the basis of a design argument! But it can’t be the case that both the presence of this random-acceleration phenomenon and its absence are evidence of design, so something has gone wrong here.
If you want a real-word example, think about radioactivity: atoms randomly falling apart for no apparent reason looks awfully like objects suddenly accelerating in random directions for no reason: it’s just the scale that’s very different. Further, if you imagine increasing the strength of the weak nuclear force, you’ll discover that life as we know it becomes impossible… whereas, as far as I know, if there were no weak force at all, life would still be perfectly possible (stars would still shine, because that ’s the strong force, chemical reactions would still work, gravity would still exist and so on). Maybe the Earth would cool down faster, or something along those lines, but it doesn’t seem a major barrier to life. However, the fact that the weak force is “just in the right range” has indeed been used as a “fine-tuning” argument!
Dark energy (or a “cosmological constant”) is another great example, perhaps even closer to what you describe. There is this mysterious unknown force making all galaxies accelerate away from each other, when gravity should be slowing them down. If the dark energy were many orders of magnitude bigger, then stars and galaxies couldn’t form in the first place (no life), but if it were orders of magnitude smaller (or zero), life and observers would get along fine. By plotting on the right scale (e.g. compared to a Planck scale), the dark energy can be made to look suspiciously small and “fine-tuned”, and this is the basis of a design argument.
Do you see the pattern here?
You raise a good point, and I do indeed see the pattern that you are claiming. I personally suspect that radioactivity, and dark energy, will both turn out to be inextricably linked to the other rules of the universe; I understand that that is already the case for the weak force, apparently a different aspect of electromagnetism (which is exceedingly important for our universe).