Wait, isn’t the Planner basically God, or at least some kind of a god ?
Yes. That was my point.
That would be an interesting test to run, actually, regardless of theism or lack thereof: are sequential numbers more likely (or perhaps less likely) than chance in our current American lottery ? If so, it would be pretty decent evidence that the lottery is rigged (not surprising, since it was in fact designed by intelligent agents, namely us humans).
Hmmm. I’m not sure about the American lottery, but the South African one has 49 numbers, from which 6 are chosen (for the moment, I shall ignore the bonus ball). There are 44 sets of sequential numbers; a set of sequential numbers should be drawn, in sequential order, an average of once in 228 826 080 draws; or drawn in any order (e.g. 6, 3, 4, 2, 5, 1) once every 317814 draws.
There have been, to date, 1239 draws. These results are available. There is just under a 0.4% chance that at least one of these sets of results would consist of six sequential numbers, in any order. There is a 99.6109% chance that none of the draws consist of six sequential numbers, drawn in any order.
I imported the data above into a spreadsheet, looked at the difference between the highest and the lowest numbers in each draw, and then found the minimum of those differences; it is 10. Therefore, the South African lottery has never had six sequential numbers drawn, in any order. This is the result that I would expect from an unrigged draw.
That depends on the value of P(Agent prefers sequential numbers|Agent is intelligent).
Surely it depends more directly on the value of P(Agent is intelligent|Agent prefers sequential numbers)? To convert between those requires Bayes’ Theorem, which depends on finding a good approximation for P(Agent is intelligent), which is going to be a whole debate on its own.
I think I may have misread your previous statement then:
I do not claim that the existence of an orderly universe is undeniable proof of the existence of God; I simply claim that it is evidence which suggests that the universe is planned, and therefore that there is (or was) a Planner.
But since you agreed that the Planner is basically God, I read that sentence as saying,
I do not claim that the existence of an orderly universe is undeniable proof of the existence of God; … it is evidence which suggests that the was planned by a God.
Is the only difference between the two statements the “undeniable” part ? If so, then I get it.
Surely it depends more directly on the value of P(Agent is intelligent|Agent prefers sequential numbers)?
My point was that it’s possible that any intelligent agent who developed via some form of evolution would be more likely to prefer sequential numbers, merely as an artifact of its development. I’m not sure how likely this is, however.
Is the only difference between the two statements the “undeniable” part ? If so, then I get it.
Yes. That is correct. I see the orderly universe as evidence of God, but not as undeniable proof thereof.
My point was that it’s possible that any intelligent agent who developed via some form of evolution would be more likely to prefer sequential numbers, merely as an artifact of its development. I’m not sure how likely this is, however.
...hmmm. It is possible. I’m not sure how that can be measured, or what difference to my point it would make if true, though.
Yes. That was my point.
Hmmm. I’m not sure about the American lottery, but the South African one has 49 numbers, from which 6 are chosen (for the moment, I shall ignore the bonus ball). There are 44 sets of sequential numbers; a set of sequential numbers should be drawn, in sequential order, an average of once in 228 826 080 draws; or drawn in any order (e.g. 6, 3, 4, 2, 5, 1) once every 317814 draws.
There have been, to date, 1239 draws. These results are available. There is just under a 0.4% chance that at least one of these sets of results would consist of six sequential numbers, in any order. There is a 99.6109% chance that none of the draws consist of six sequential numbers, drawn in any order.
I imported the data above into a spreadsheet, looked at the difference between the highest and the lowest numbers in each draw, and then found the minimum of those differences; it is 10. Therefore, the South African lottery has never had six sequential numbers drawn, in any order. This is the result that I would expect from an unrigged draw.
Surely it depends more directly on the value of P(Agent is intelligent|Agent prefers sequential numbers)? To convert between those requires Bayes’ Theorem, which depends on finding a good approximation for P(Agent is intelligent), which is going to be a whole debate on its own.
I think I may have misread your previous statement then:
But since you agreed that the Planner is basically God, I read that sentence as saying,
Is the only difference between the two statements the “undeniable” part ? If so, then I get it.
My point was that it’s possible that any intelligent agent who developed via some form of evolution would be more likely to prefer sequential numbers, merely as an artifact of its development. I’m not sure how likely this is, however.
Yes. That is correct. I see the orderly universe as evidence of God, but not as undeniable proof thereof.
...hmmm. It is possible. I’m not sure how that can be measured, or what difference to my point it would make if true, though.