Still, the conjecture is that most people would measurably benefit from learning rationality, as opposed to, say, math or tarot cards, and one would expect these benefits to start showing up quite visibly after 10+ years of the community existing.
How useful was learning chemistry 10+ years of the chemistry community existing?
The assumptions depends a lot on how much of possible rationality techniques we already discovered and for those techniques that we did discover we actually got people to use them on a regular basis.
How useful was learning chemistry 10+ years of the chemistry community existing?
Good question. I don’t know what reference class is appropriate here. I can’t come up with other communities like this off the top of my head.
The assumptions depends a lot on how much of possible rationality techniques we already discovered and for those techniques that we did discover we actually got people to use them on a regular basis.
It does. One estimate is “what CFAR teaches”, and I think it’s quite a bit. Whether the CFAR alumni are measurably better than their peers who didn’t attend a CFAR workshop, I don’t know, do you?
How useful was learning chemistry 10+ years of the chemistry community existing?
The assumptions depends a lot on how much of possible rationality techniques we already discovered and for those techniques that we did discover we actually got people to use them on a regular basis.
Good question. I don’t know what reference class is appropriate here. I can’t come up with other communities like this off the top of my head.
It does. One estimate is “what CFAR teaches”, and I think it’s quite a bit. Whether the CFAR alumni are measurably better than their peers who didn’t attend a CFAR workshop, I don’t know, do you?