Currently, there’s competition about how has the best cloud between Google, IBM, Amazon, Oracle and Microsoft. It seems that those companies believe that a successful cloud platform is one that has API’s that can easily used for a wide variety of use cases.
I think this kind of AI research is equivalent with AGI research.
Facebooks internal AI research is broad enough that they pursued Go as a toy problem similar to how Deep Mind did so.
After DeepMind’s success, Tencent Holding didn’t take long to debut an engine that’s on par with professional players even through it isn’t yet on the AlphaGo level.
Apple has money lying around. It’s knows that Siri underperforms at the moment, so it makes total sense to invest money into long-term AI/AGI research. Strategically Apple doesn’t want to be in a situation where Google’s DeepMind/Google Brain initiatives continue to put it’s assistant well ahead of Apple’s performance.
Samsung wants Bixby to be a success and not be outperformed by competing assistants. Samsung also needs AI in a variety of other fields for military tech to internet of things applications.
Bridgewater Associates is working on it’s AI/human hybrid to replace Ray Dalio. Using humans as subroutines might mean that the result get’s dangerous much faster.
Palantir wants the money of the US military for doing various analysis tasks. Given that it’s a broad spectrum of tasks it pays to have quite AI general capabilities. The US military wants to buy AI.
While the CIA is now in the Amazon cloud, Palantir wants to stay competitive and don’t lose projects to Amazon and that requires it do to basic research.
Salesforce has the money and it will need to do a lot of AI to keep up with the times.
I think Baidu and Alibaba will face similar pressures as Google and Amazon. I think both need to invest into basic AI and the have the capability to do so.
Given the possible consequences of AGI for geopolitical power, I think it’s very likely that the Chinese Government has an AGI project.
Okay, you have a much broader definition of what’s AGI research, then. I usually interpret the term to only mean research that has making AGI as an explicit objective, especially since most researchers would (IME) disagree with “API’s that can easily used for a wide variety of use cases” being equivalent to AGI research.
I would say about 1000.
950 of them have no chance at all.
But at least 20 of those which tirelessly exercising cnn or ML or some other neural network thing, have some chances to success.
And about 20 other teams may be out there, which have some other, also decent ideas.
I am just speculating, but this looks plausible to me.
I have approximately the same priors:
10 large companies, which get the most probability of creating something, and 50 percent it will be Google.
100 university professors and startups. If they create something meaningful, they will be acquired by Google
1000 freaks.
10 large companies seem to be an understatement.
From my head:
Baidu
Alibaba
Salesforce
Facebook
Amazon
Palantir
IBM
Google
Apple
Samsung
Microsoft
Bridgewater Associates
Infosys
The Chinese Government
Toyota
Tencent Holding
Oracle
Are you saying that all of those are working on AGI? That would be enormously surprising to me.
Currently, there’s competition about how has the best cloud between Google, IBM, Amazon, Oracle and Microsoft. It seems that those companies believe that a successful cloud platform is one that has API’s that can easily used for a wide variety of use cases.
I think this kind of AI research is equivalent with AGI research.
Facebooks internal AI research is broad enough that they pursued Go as a toy problem similar to how Deep Mind did so. After DeepMind’s success, Tencent Holding didn’t take long to debut an engine that’s on par with professional players even through it isn’t yet on the AlphaGo level.
Apple has money lying around. It’s knows that Siri underperforms at the moment, so it makes total sense to invest money into long-term AI/AGI research. Strategically Apple doesn’t want to be in a situation where Google’s DeepMind/Google Brain initiatives continue to put it’s assistant well ahead of Apple’s performance.
Samsung wants Bixby to be a success and not be outperformed by competing assistants. Samsung also needs AI in a variety of other fields for military tech to internet of things applications.
Bridgewater Associates is working on it’s AI/human hybrid to replace Ray Dalio. Using humans as subroutines might mean that the result get’s dangerous much faster.
Palantir wants the money of the US military for doing various analysis tasks. Given that it’s a broad spectrum of tasks it pays to have quite AI general capabilities. The US military wants to buy AI. While the CIA is now in the Amazon cloud, Palantir wants to stay competitive and don’t lose projects to Amazon and that requires it do to basic research.
Salesforce has the money and it will need to do a lot of AI to keep up with the times.
I think Baidu and Alibaba will face similar pressures as Google and Amazon. I think both need to invest into basic AI and the have the capability to do so.
Given the possible consequences of AGI for geopolitical power, I think it’s very likely that the Chinese Government has an AGI project.
Okay, you have a much broader definition of what’s AGI research, then. I usually interpret the term to only mean research that has making AGI as an explicit objective, especially since most researchers would (IME) disagree with “API’s that can easily used for a wide variety of use cases” being equivalent to AGI research.
Thanks for the update. Some of the names are surprising for me, but I will check.