I think this analysis is totally wrong; in WFLL humans go extinct as a result of uncoordinated actions from many different AI-based actors in the same way that humans have nearly driven chimpanzees extinct without having a master plan to do so, or have actually extincted many other animal species.
Far from 0.1% I’d say WFLL has something like a 90% chance of causing human extinction as powerful optimizers that don’t care about humans and that change the world a lot will generically cause human extinction.
I think this analysis is totally wrong; in WFLL humans go extinct as a result of uncoordinated actions from many different AI-based actors in the same way that humans have nearly driven chimpanzees extinct without having a master plan to do so, or have actually extincted many other animal species.
Far from 0.1% I’d say WFLL has something like a 90% chance of causing human extinction as powerful optimizers that don’t care about humans and that change the world a lot will generically cause human extinction.