I’d give Less Wrong and e-mail substantially more than 25% chance of surviving to 2020 and 2135 respectively in some form, and the US a bit less than 25% chance of surviving to 2732. (But still within the same ballpark—not bad for such a crude heuristic.)
I’d give Less Wrong and e-mail substantially more than 25% chance of surviving to 2020 and 2135 respectively in some form, and the US a bit less than 25% chance of surviving to 2732. (But still within the same ballpark—not bad for such a crude heuristic.)