The vast majority of people never actually change their mind, at least regarding sensitive topics like religion or political affiliation; the average person develops a moral model at about age 20 and sticks with it until death. If, for example, some old lady doesn’t openly criticize gay people like she used to do 50 years ago, it’s just because she knows that her view are falling outside the Overton window, not because she changed opinion.
The main implication of this is that the average person votes always for the same party no matter what, and every election is decided basically by how many people decide simply not to vote rather than voting for their tribe (typically because they feel the party’s political line has strayed too far from their immutable view), plus the natural shift resulting from old voters dying and younger people gaining the right to vote. The number of voters who actually switch vote from one party to another is ridiculously low and doesn’t matter in practice (this is less true in democracies with more than two parties, but just because two sufficiently similar parties could contest the same immutable voter).
Well, how many people do you know who switched vote from one party to another?
I don’t discuss voting choiches much within my social circle, but I am quite sure that at least 90% of my close relatives are voters of this kind (they don’t all vote for the same party, but at an individual level their vote never change).
The vast majority of people never actually change their mind, at least regarding sensitive topics like religion or political affiliation; the average person develops a moral model at about age 20 and sticks with it until death. If, for example, some old lady doesn’t openly criticize gay people like she used to do 50 years ago, it’s just because she knows that her view are falling outside the Overton window, not because she changed opinion.
The main implication of this is that the average person votes always for the same party no matter what, and every election is decided basically by how many people decide simply not to vote rather than voting for their tribe (typically because they feel the party’s political line has strayed too far from their immutable view), plus the natural shift resulting from old voters dying and younger people gaining the right to vote. The number of voters who actually switch vote from one party to another is ridiculously low and doesn’t matter in practice (this is less true in democracies with more than two parties, but just because two sufficiently similar parties could contest the same immutable voter).
Evidence?
Well, how many people do you know who switched vote from one party to another?
I don’t discuss voting choiches much within my social circle, but I am quite sure that at least 90% of my close relatives are voters of this kind (they don’t all vote for the same party, but at an individual level their vote never change).