Real backchaining is starting from a desired outcome and reverse engineering how to get it, step by step.
e.g. I want to eat ice cream ← I had ice cream in the house ← I drove to the store and bought ice cream X no wait I don’t have a car X I ordered ice cream delivered ← I had money ← I had a job
Fake backchaining is claiming to have done that, when you didn’t really. In the most obvious version the person comes up with the action first, forward to chains to how it could produce a good outcome, and the presents that as a backchain. I think forward chaining can be fine (I’d probably rank “I forward chained and BOTECed the results” ahead of intuition alone), but presenting it as backchaining means something screwy is going on.
The more insidious version follows the form of backchaining, but attention slides off at key points, generating terrible plans.
E.g. (from the same person, who lacks a car) I want to eat ice cream ← I had ice cream in the house ← I drove to the store and bought ice cream ← I own a car ← I had money ← I had a job.
The difference between faking backchaining and being honest but bad at it is that if you point out flaws to the latter kind of person they are delighted to find an easier way to achieve their goals. The fake backchainer in the same situation will get angry, or be unable to pay attention, or look attentive but change nothing once you walk away (although this can be difficult to distinguish from the advice being terrible).
E.g. I have a planned project (pending funding) to do a lit review on stimulants. I think this project has very high EV, and it would be really easy for me to create a fake backchain for it. But the truth is that someone suggested it to me, and I forward chained as far ahead as “make x-risk workers more effective”, and left it at that. If I had created a fake backchain it would imply more thought than I put in to e.g. importance of x-risk work relative to others.
What’s an example of fake backchaining?
Real backchaining is starting from a desired outcome and reverse engineering how to get it, step by step.
e.g. I want to eat ice cream ← I had ice cream in the house ← I drove to the store and bought ice cream X no wait I don’t have a car X I ordered ice cream delivered ← I had money ← I had a job
Fake backchaining is claiming to have done that, when you didn’t really. In the most obvious version the person comes up with the action first, forward to chains to how it could produce a good outcome, and the presents that as a backchain. I think forward chaining can be fine (I’d probably rank “I forward chained and BOTECed the results” ahead of intuition alone), but presenting it as backchaining means something screwy is going on.
The more insidious version follows the form of backchaining, but attention slides off at key points, generating terrible plans.
E.g. (from the same person, who lacks a car) I want to eat ice cream ← I had ice cream in the house ← I drove to the store and bought ice cream ← I own a car ← I had money ← I had a job.
The difference between faking backchaining and being honest but bad at it is that if you point out flaws to the latter kind of person they are delighted to find an easier way to achieve their goals. The fake backchainer in the same situation will get angry, or be unable to pay attention, or look attentive but change nothing once you walk away (although this can be difficult to distinguish from the advice being terrible).
E.g. I have a planned project (pending funding) to do a lit review on stimulants. I think this project has very high EV, and it would be really easy for me to create a fake backchain for it. But the truth is that someone suggested it to me, and I forward chained as far ahead as “make x-risk workers more effective”, and left it at that. If I had created a fake backchain it would imply more thought than I put in to e.g. importance of x-risk work relative to others.