I don’t place any confidence in my intuition as a general, indiscriminately good-for-everything case. I try to only have confidence on a case by case basis. I try to pay attention to all potential bias that could screw my opinion, like anchoring. And try to not pay attention to who wrote what I’m voting upon. Then I have to have a counterargument. Even if I don’t elaborate it, even if I don’t lay it down, I have to know that if I had the time or motivation, I could rather reply, and say what was wrong or right in that post.
My decisions and arguments, could, or could not be more informed than those of the average voter. But if I add my own in the pool of votes, then we have a new average. Which will only be slightly worse, or slightly better. Could we try to adapt something of decision markets there ? The way they’re supposed to self correct, under the right conditions, makes me wonder if we could dig a solution in them.
And maybe someone could create an article, collecting all the stuff that could help people make more informed votes on LW, that’d help too. Like the biases they’d have to take into account, stuff like the antikibitzer, or links to articles such as the one about aumann voting or this very one.
I don’t place any confidence in my intuition as a general, indiscriminately good-for-everything case. I try to only have confidence on a case by case basis. I try to pay attention to all potential bias that could screw my opinion, like anchoring. And try to not pay attention to who wrote what I’m voting upon. Then I have to have a counterargument. Even if I don’t elaborate it, even if I don’t lay it down, I have to know that if I had the time or motivation, I could rather reply, and say what was wrong or right in that post.
My decisions and arguments, could, or could not be more informed than those of the average voter. But if I add my own in the pool of votes, then we have a new average. Which will only be slightly worse, or slightly better. Could we try to adapt something of decision markets there ? The way they’re supposed to self correct, under the right conditions, makes me wonder if we could dig a solution in them.
And maybe someone could create an article, collecting all the stuff that could help people make more informed votes on LW, that’d help too. Like the biases they’d have to take into account, stuff like the antikibitzer, or links to articles such as the one about aumann voting or this very one.