This was a post in qualitative story-telling mode, with no real view to how the extra details were likely or unlikely. The arguments used were fairly poor because of all the argument by analogy and just plain assuming your claims.
To do better, try to keep arguments grounded in quantifiable situations. Remember that extra details are burdensome and be careful of fictional evidence. Also, yeah, read up on a bit of decision theory.
This was a post in qualitative story-telling mode, with no real view to how the extra details were likely or unlikely. The arguments used were fairly poor because of all the argument by analogy and just plain assuming your claims.
To do better, try to keep arguments grounded in quantifiable situations. Remember that extra details are burdensome and be careful of fictional evidence. Also, yeah, read up on a bit of decision theory.