Indeed. I wasn’t aware of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wits_and_Wagers. There is no German match for it (yet).
I actually considered using a confidence rating but discarded it because it was too easy to game the rules for it—but that was during the first test games that were about estimating your own performance via multiple estimates (called ‘strict variant’ in the post). When I switched to estimating the range of the other players guesses I didn’t reconsider confidence ranges. Could be an interesting variant.
The current gameplay is really simple even though it includes a min-max range. There was a earlier and more complex version that had a 90% range (or more precisely an 1-1/N range) which earned N points if it excluded exactly 1 guess, 1 if it excluded none and 0 if more than 1. That was OK but didn’t gain much. The most surprises were still registered by the min-max range.
Indeed. I wasn’t aware of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wits_and_Wagers. There is no German match for it (yet). I actually considered using a confidence rating but discarded it because it was too easy to game the rules for it—but that was during the first test games that were about estimating your own performance via multiple estimates (called ‘strict variant’ in the post). When I switched to estimating the range of the other players guesses I didn’t reconsider confidence ranges. Could be an interesting variant.
The current gameplay is really simple even though it includes a min-max range. There was a earlier and more complex version that had a 90% range (or more precisely an 1-1/N range) which earned N points if it excluded exactly 1 guess, 1 if it excluded none and 0 if more than 1. That was OK but didn’t gain much. The most surprises were still registered by the min-max range.