If you have a certainty of 55% on a binary (A) or (B) question, and you respond “it seems to me there’s a 55% chance of “Yes” ”, I wouldn’t be surprised if the non-perfect Bayesian recipient of the information would treat this as if you had mentioned a certainty of 75%.
Hence my useful phrases; in practice they diminish the other person’s measure of my certainty significantly.
Hence my useful phrases; in practice they diminish the other person’s measure of my certainty significantly.