With “However, if a participant received a green ball, he shall update the probability of mostly-green-ball urn from 0.5 to 0.9.” dadadarren is just restating the reasoning from the Outlawing Anthropics post:
Let the dilemma be, “I will ask all people who wake up in green rooms if they are willing to take the bet ‘Create 1 paperclip if the logical coinflip came up heads, destroy 3 paperclips if the logical coinflip came up tails’. (Should they disagree on their answers, I will destroy 5 paperclips.)” Then a paperclip maximizer, before the experiment, wants the paperclip maximizers who wake up in green rooms to refuse the bet. But a conscious paperclip maximizer who updates on anthropic evidence, who wakes up in a green room, will want to take the bet, with expected utility ((90% * +1 paperclip) + (10% * −3 paperclips)) = +0.6 paperclips.
I think you partly agree with dadadarren.
Whether to use SSA or SIA in anthropic probability remains highly dependent on the question setup.
Yes, in a way it is the question setup. But which part? I think dadadarren’s answer is the use of terms like “I” and “now” in an ambiguous way.
With “However, if a participant received a green ball, he shall update the probability of mostly-green-ball urn from 0.5 to 0.9.” dadadarren is just restating the reasoning from the Outlawing Anthropics post:
I think you partly agree with dadadarren.
Yes, in a way it is the question setup. But which part? I think dadadarren’s answer is the use of terms like “I” and “now” in an ambiguous way.