Is there any research on how the actual impact of [the kind of AI that we currently have] lives up to the expectations from the time [shortly before we had that kind of AI but close enough that we could clearly see it coming]?
This is vague but not unreasonable periods for the second time would be:
After OA Copilot, before ChatGPT (so summer-autumn 2022).
After PaLM, before Copilot.
After GPT-2, before GPT-3.
I’m also interested in research on historical over- and under-performance of other tech (where “we kinda saw it (or could see) it coming”) relative to expectations.
Is there any research on how the actual impact of [the kind of AI that we currently have] lives up to the expectations from the time [shortly before we had that kind of AI but close enough that we could clearly see it coming]?
This is vague but not unreasonable periods for the second time would be:
After OA Copilot, before ChatGPT (so summer-autumn 2022).
After PaLM, before Copilot.
After GPT-2, before GPT-3.
I’m also interested in research on historical over- and under-performance of other tech (where “we kinda saw it (or could see) it coming”) relative to expectations.