If you know the experimenter is trying to exploit you, then the fact that they posed the question as “red or green” decreases the expected number of green balls. On the other hand if they posed the question “green+blue or red+blue”, it increases your expected number of green balls. So this is entirely consistent with Bayesian probability, conditioned on which question the evil experimenter asked you. This is the same reason why you shouldn’t necessarily want to bet either way on a proposition if the person offering the bet might have information about it that you don’t have.
If the experimenter knows what distribution you expect, they may decide not to use that distribution. And unless you’re the first person in the experiment, they have in fact been learning what distributions people expect, though not you in particular.
What you could do is run your own similar experiment on regular subjects first so you know what the experimenter is likely to expect, and then impersonate a regular subject when you are called into the experiment, up until the point you get offered a bet. I don’t think they would have accounted for that possibility, and even if they did it would be rare enough to still be unexpected.
But make sure the financial incentives to do this aren’t enough that other people do the same thing or it will ruin your plan. You have to be satisfied with outwitting the experimenter.
If you know the experimenter is trying to exploit you, then the fact that they posed the question as “red or green” decreases the expected number of green balls. On the other hand if they posed the question “green+blue or red+blue”, it increases your expected number of green balls. So this is entirely consistent with Bayesian probability, conditioned on which question the evil experimenter asked you. This is the same reason why you shouldn’t necessarily want to bet either way on a proposition if the person offering the bet might have information about it that you don’t have.
If the experimenter knows what distribution you expect, they may decide not to use that distribution. And unless you’re the first person in the experiment, they have in fact been learning what distributions people expect, though not you in particular.
What you could do is run your own similar experiment on regular subjects first so you know what the experimenter is likely to expect, and then impersonate a regular subject when you are called into the experiment, up until the point you get offered a bet. I don’t think they would have accounted for that possibility, and even if they did it would be rare enough to still be unexpected.
But make sure the financial incentives to do this aren’t enough that other people do the same thing or it will ruin your plan. You have to be satisfied with outwitting the experimenter.