I didn’t say this, but my primary motivation for the question actually has more to do with surviving the economic transition process: if-and-when we get to a UBI-fueled post-scarcity economy, a career becomes just a hobby that also incidentally upgrades your lifestyle somewhat. However, depending on how fast the growth rates during the AGI economic transition are, how fast the government/sovereign AI puts UBI in place, and so forth, the transition could be long-drawn out, turbulent, and even unpleasant, even if we eventually reach a Good End. While personally navigating that period, understanding categories of jobs more or less safe from AGI competition seems like it could be very valuable.
Ok. I thought after I posted my first answer, one of the things that would be really quite valuable during the turbulent transition, is understanding what’s going on and translating it for people who are less able to keep up, because of lacking background knowledge or temperament. While it will be the case after a certain point that AI can give people reliable information, there will be a segment of the population that will want to hear the interpretation of a trustworthy human, and also, the cognitive flexibility to deal with a complex and rapidly changing environment and provide advice to people based on their specific circumstances, will be a comparative advantage that lasts longer than most.
Acting as a consultant to help others navigate the transition, particularly if that incorporates other expertise you have (there may be a better generic advice giver in the world, and you’re not likely to be able to compete with Zvi in terms of synthesizing and summarizing information, but if you’re for example well enough versed in the current situation, plus you have some professional specialty, plus you have local knowledge of the laws or business conditions in your geographic area, you could be the best consultant in the world with that combination of skills).
Also, generic advice for turbulent times: learn to live on as little as possible, stay flexible and willing to move, save up as much as you can so that you have some capital to deploy when that could be very useful (if the interest rates go sky high because suddenly everyone wants money to build chip fabs or mine metals for robots or something, having some extra cash pre-transition could mean having plenty post-transition) but also you have some free cash in case things go sideways and a well placed wad of cash can get you out of a jam on short notice, let you quit your job and pivot, or do something else that has a short term financial cost but you think is good under the circumstances. Basically make yourself more resilient, knowing turbulence is coming, and prepare to help others navigate the situation. Make friends and broaden your social network, so that you can call on them if needed and vice versa.
I didn’t say this, but my primary motivation for the question actually has more to do with surviving the economic transition process: if-and-when we get to a UBI-fueled post-scarcity economy, a career becomes just a hobby that also incidentally upgrades your lifestyle somewhat. However, depending on how fast the growth rates during the AGI economic transition are, how fast the government/sovereign AI puts UBI in place, and so forth, the transition could be long-drawn out, turbulent, and even unpleasant, even if we eventually reach a Good End. While personally navigating that period, understanding categories of jobs more or less safe from AGI competition seems like it could be very valuable.
Ok. I thought after I posted my first answer, one of the things that would be really quite valuable during the turbulent transition, is understanding what’s going on and translating it for people who are less able to keep up, because of lacking background knowledge or temperament. While it will be the case after a certain point that AI can give people reliable information, there will be a segment of the population that will want to hear the interpretation of a trustworthy human, and also, the cognitive flexibility to deal with a complex and rapidly changing environment and provide advice to people based on their specific circumstances, will be a comparative advantage that lasts longer than most.
Acting as a consultant to help others navigate the transition, particularly if that incorporates other expertise you have (there may be a better generic advice giver in the world, and you’re not likely to be able to compete with Zvi in terms of synthesizing and summarizing information, but if you’re for example well enough versed in the current situation, plus you have some professional specialty, plus you have local knowledge of the laws or business conditions in your geographic area, you could be the best consultant in the world with that combination of skills).
Also, generic advice for turbulent times: learn to live on as little as possible, stay flexible and willing to move, save up as much as you can so that you have some capital to deploy when that could be very useful (if the interest rates go sky high because suddenly everyone wants money to build chip fabs or mine metals for robots or something, having some extra cash pre-transition could mean having plenty post-transition) but also you have some free cash in case things go sideways and a well placed wad of cash can get you out of a jam on short notice, let you quit your job and pivot, or do something else that has a short term financial cost but you think is good under the circumstances. Basically make yourself more resilient, knowing turbulence is coming, and prepare to help others navigate the situation. Make friends and broaden your social network, so that you can call on them if needed and vice versa.
That sounds like good advice — thanks!