For arbitrary time horizons nothing is ‘safe’, but that just means our economy shifts to a new model. It doesn’t mean the outcome is bad for humans. I don’t know if it makes sense to worry about which part of the ship will become submerged first because everyone will rush for the other parts and those jobs will be too competitive. It might be better to worry about how to pressure the political system to take proactive action to rearchitect our economy. Ubi and/or a shorter workweek are inevitable and the sooner we sort out how to implement that the better.
for the sake of understanding the roadmap for the autopocalypse, I think you can consider these factors:
The most obvious: can the work be entirely computer-based? A corollary to this is whether a unskilled human with the assistance of an ai can replace the skilled human (e.g. Healthcare roles requiring knowledge work and physical work)
Regulatory environment. Even if it were possible for software to replace a human worker licensing requirements and other laws may protect human workers for awhile beyond that point.
Eventually machines will be able to transcend software to perform every physical task a human can now perform. And that mostly won’t be anthropomorphic robots but more automation of machines that currently are operated by humans, like cars and drones. The anthropomorphic robots will appear (on the job) the furthest into the future.
But again everyone will be racing away from these jobs (and toward the remaining ‘safe’ ones) at the same time. Financial investment may be the safest source of income. Owning your own business may possibly benefit from the autopocalypse but at the extreme you will just be an investor in a company run by machines.
TLDR:
So the best advice is probably to build an investment portfolio (and the knowledge to do that well). If you own the companies it doesn’t matter who the workers are.
I think active stock-market investing, or running your own company, in a post AGI-world is about as safe as rubbing yourself down in chum before jumping into a shark feeding frenzy. Making money on the stock market is about being better then the average investor at making predictions. If the average investor is an ASI, then you’re clearly one of the suckers.
One obvious strategy would be to just buy stock and hold it (which I think may be what you were actually suggesting). But in an economy as turbulent as a post-AGI FOOM, that’s only going to work for a certain amount of time before your investments turn sour, and your judgement of when to sell and buy something else puts you back in the stock market losing game.
So I think that leaves something comparable to an ASI-managed fund, or an index fund. I don’t know that that strategy is safe either, but it seems less clearly doomed than either of the previous ones.
For arbitrary time horizons nothing is ‘safe’, but that just means our economy shifts to a new model. It doesn’t mean the outcome is bad for humans. I don’t know if it makes sense to worry about which part of the ship will become submerged first because everyone will rush for the other parts and those jobs will be too competitive. It might be better to worry about how to pressure the political system to take proactive action to rearchitect our economy. Ubi and/or a shorter workweek are inevitable and the sooner we sort out how to implement that the better.
for the sake of understanding the roadmap for the autopocalypse, I think you can consider these factors:
The most obvious: can the work be entirely computer-based? A corollary to this is whether a unskilled human with the assistance of an ai can replace the skilled human (e.g. Healthcare roles requiring knowledge work and physical work)
Regulatory environment. Even if it were possible for software to replace a human worker licensing requirements and other laws may protect human workers for awhile beyond that point.
Eventually machines will be able to transcend software to perform every physical task a human can now perform. And that mostly won’t be anthropomorphic robots but more automation of machines that currently are operated by humans, like cars and drones. The anthropomorphic robots will appear (on the job) the furthest into the future.
But again everyone will be racing away from these jobs (and toward the remaining ‘safe’ ones) at the same time. Financial investment may be the safest source of income. Owning your own business may possibly benefit from the autopocalypse but at the extreme you will just be an investor in a company run by machines.
TLDR:
So the best advice is probably to build an investment portfolio (and the knowledge to do that well). If you own the companies it doesn’t matter who the workers are.
I think active stock-market investing, or running your own company, in a post AGI-world is about as safe as rubbing yourself down in chum before jumping into a shark feeding frenzy. Making money on the stock market is about being better then the average investor at making predictions. If the average investor is an ASI, then you’re clearly one of the suckers.
One obvious strategy would be to just buy stock and hold it (which I think may be what you were actually suggesting). But in an economy as turbulent as a post-AGI FOOM, that’s only going to work for a certain amount of time before your investments turn sour, and your judgement of when to sell and buy something else puts you back in the stock market losing game.
So I think that leaves something comparable to an ASI-managed fund, or an index fund. I don’t know that that strategy is safe either, but it seems less clearly doomed than either of the previous ones.
Hmmm I guess I don’t really use the terms ‘investing’ and ‘trading’ interchangeably.