Polygenic predictors have improved since Gwern’s 2016 post on embryo selection. Using his R code for estimating gain given variance and standard deviation and taking the variance explained from the Educational Attainment 3 study, I find that selecting from 10 embryos would produce a gain of between 4 to 5 points for the top-scoring embryo (assuming no implantation loss). Accounting for implantation loss it would probably take 14 embryos or so to get the same benefit.
Steve Hsu thinks that if we were to offer UK biobank’s IQ test to a million participants, we could get IQ predictors that would explain 50-60% 30-40% of variance. That would work out to a gain of 9-10 IQ points from selecting among 10 embryos, and up to 14 points if you had about 30 to choose from. See “technical note” in this post: https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2021/09/kathryn-paige-harden-profile-in-new.html
Polygenic predictors have improved since Gwern’s 2016 post on embryo selection. Using his R code for estimating gain given variance and standard deviation and taking the variance explained from the Educational Attainment 3 study, I find that selecting from 10 embryos would produce a gain of between 4 to 5 points for the top-scoring embryo (assuming no implantation loss). Accounting for implantation loss it would probably take 14 embryos or so to get the same benefit.
Gwern’s code: https://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection#benefit
EA3 study: https://sci-hubtw.hkvisa.net/10.1038/s41588-018-0147-3
Steve Hsu thinks that if we were to offer UK biobank’s IQ test to a million participants, we could get IQ predictors that would explain
50-60%30-40% of variance. That would work out to a gain of 9-10 IQ points from selecting among 10 embryos, and up to 14 points if you had about 30 to choose from. See “technical note” in this post: https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2021/09/kathryn-paige-harden-profile-in-new.html