It seems that calibrating personal judgements using decision markets could in principle be a way to measure rationality. You make a guess, and if your guess is close to what the market predicts, you can be slightly more confident about yourself. Of course, for this to work, you’d have to avoid prior knowledge of the market, and skip participating in betting on topics that you want to consider unassisted first.
It seems that calibrating personal judgements using decision markets could in principle be a way to measure rationality. You make a guess, and if your guess is close to what the market predicts, you can be slightly more confident about yourself. Of course, for this to work, you’d have to avoid prior knowledge of the market, and skip participating in betting on topics that you want to consider unassisted first.
Great post btw.