So all we need is an example of a universe without atoms (corresponding to the example of someone who did win the lottery despite the improbability of doing that) for this analogy to work.
I think there are fields of thought in which the best paradigm is that something either is or isn’t, and where probabalistic thinking will do no good, and if forced or contrived to seem to work, may do harm (e.g. the models by which Wall Street came up with a plausible—to some—argument that CDSs of subprime mortgages could be rated AAA).
And there are fields of thought in which the idea that something simply is or isn’t is the thing likely to mislead or do harm (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interesting_number where one gets into trouble by thinking a number either is or isn’t “interesting”).
The “interesting number” business isn’t probabalistic either, though there may be some usefulness, in Baysian arguments that treat subjective “levels of certainty” like probabilities.
So all we need is an example of a universe without atoms (corresponding to the example of someone who did win the lottery despite the improbability of doing that) for this analogy to work.
I think there are fields of thought in which the best paradigm is that something either is or isn’t, and where probabalistic thinking will do no good, and if forced or contrived to seem to work, may do harm (e.g. the models by which Wall Street came up with a plausible—to some—argument that CDSs of subprime mortgages could be rated AAA).
And there are fields of thought in which the idea that something simply is or isn’t is the thing likely to mislead or do harm (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interesting_number where one gets into trouble by thinking a number either is or isn’t “interesting”).
The “interesting number” business isn’t probabalistic either, though there may be some usefulness, in Baysian arguments that treat subjective “levels of certainty” like probabilities.