I totally agree those are on a continuum. I don’t think this changes my point? It seems like Eliezer is confident that “reduce x-risk to EDIT: sub-50%” requires being all the way on the far side of that continuum, and I don’t see why that’s required.
(“near-zero” is a red herring, and I worry that that phrasing bolsters the incorrect view that the reason MIRI folk think alignment is hard is that we want implausibly strong guarantees. I suggest replacing “reduce x-risk to near-zero” with “reduce x-risk to sub-50%”.)
I totally agree those are on a continuum. I don’t think this changes my point? It seems like Eliezer is confident that “reduce x-risk to EDIT: sub-50%” requires being all the way on the far side of that continuum, and I don’t see why that’s required.
(“near-zero” is a red herring, and I worry that that phrasing bolsters the incorrect view that the reason MIRI folk think alignment is hard is that we want implausibly strong guarantees. I suggest replacing “reduce x-risk to near-zero” with “reduce x-risk to sub-50%”.)
(Done)