But you’re not a hotel, you’re an observer. Why does the number of hotels matter but not the number of observers? If the tire fire is replaced with an empty hotel, you still can’t end up in it.
It seems like your function for ending up in a future, based on the number of observers in that future, goes as follows:
If there’s zero, the prior likelihood gets multiplied by zero.
If there’s one, the prior likelihood gets multiplied by one.
If there’s more than one, the prior likelihood still only gets multiplied by one.
This function seems more complicated than just multiplying the prior probability by the number of observers, which is what I do. My reasoning is, even on a going forward basis, if there’s a line connecting me to a world with one future self, and no line connecting me to a world without a future self, there must be 14 lines connecting me to a future with 14 future selves.
Is there some reason to prefer your going-forward interpretation over mine, despite the fact that mine is simpler and agrees with the going-backwards perspective?
But you’re not a hotel, you’re an observer. Why does the number of hotels matter but not the number of observers? If the tire fire is replaced with an empty hotel, you still can’t end up in it.
It seems like your function for ending up in a future, based on the number of observers in that future, goes as follows:
If there’s zero, the prior likelihood gets multiplied by zero.
If there’s one, the prior likelihood gets multiplied by one.
If there’s more than one, the prior likelihood still only gets multiplied by one.
This function seems more complicated than just multiplying the prior probability by the number of observers, which is what I do. My reasoning is, even on a going forward basis, if there’s a line connecting me to a world with one future self, and no line connecting me to a world without a future self, there must be 14 lines connecting me to a future with 14 future selves.
Is there some reason to prefer your going-forward interpretation over mine, despite the fact that mine is simpler and agrees with the going-backwards perspective?