Well maybe. Suppose you and another skilled rationalists assign 47% and 42% to an event that’s 10 years away. Once you factor in bet overhead, diminishing marginal utility of money, opportunity cost etc, its hard to come out making a profit.
Now betting can be a good way to give a costly signal of your own ability to predict such questions, but if a skilled rationalist plans to bet for the money, the last person they want to be betting against is another skilled rationalist. (Or someone who won’t pay up) They want to find the most delusional person they can get to bet. The person who is confidant that the moon is a hologram and will be turned off tomorrow.
At one extreme you have costly signals between two skilled rationalists, neither of which are making much in expectation. Some evidence for belief in own rationality. Also evidence for wealth and being prepared to throw money around to make your point. A good track record of bets, like a good track record of predictions, is evidence of rationality. Just having made bets that haven’t resolved yet could mean they believe themselves to be rational, or just that they like betting and have money to spare.
On the other extreme you have exploiting the delusional to swindle them.
Rationalists should bet on beliefs.
Well maybe. Suppose you and another skilled rationalists assign 47% and 42% to an event that’s 10 years away. Once you factor in bet overhead, diminishing marginal utility of money, opportunity cost etc, its hard to come out making a profit.
Now betting can be a good way to give a costly signal of your own ability to predict such questions, but if a skilled rationalist plans to bet for the money, the last person they want to be betting against is another skilled rationalist. (Or someone who won’t pay up) They want to find the most delusional person they can get to bet. The person who is confidant that the moon is a hologram and will be turned off tomorrow.
At one extreme you have costly signals between two skilled rationalists, neither of which are making much in expectation. Some evidence for belief in own rationality. Also evidence for wealth and being prepared to throw money around to make your point. A good track record of bets, like a good track record of predictions, is evidence of rationality. Just having made bets that haven’t resolved yet could mean they believe themselves to be rational, or just that they like betting and have money to spare.
On the other extreme you have exploiting the delusional to swindle them.