From Star Slate Codex “I myself am a Scientismist”
Antipredictions do not always sound like antipredictions. Consider the claim “once we start traveling the stars, I am 99% sure that the first alien civilization we meet will not be our technological equals”. This sounds rather bold – how should I know to two decimal places about aliens, never having met any?
But human civilization has existed for 10,000 years, and may go on for much longer. If “technological equals” are people within about 50 years of our tech level either way, then all I’m claiming is that out of 10,000 years of alien civilization, we won’t hit the 100 where they are about equivalent to us. 99% is the exact right probability to use there, so this is an antiprediction and requires no special knowledge about aliens to make.
I disagree. I think that it is likely that a society can get to a point where they have all the tech. I think that we will probably do this within a million years (and possibly within 5 minutes of ASI) Any aliens we meet will be technological equals, or dinosaurs with no tech whatsoever.
But your disagreement only kicks in after a million years. If we meet the first alien civilization we meet, before then, then it doesn’t seem to apply. A million (and 10,000?) years is also an even bigger interval than 10,000 - making what appears to be an even stronger case than the post you referenced.
From Star Slate Codex “I myself am a Scientismist”
I disagree. I think that it is likely that a society can get to a point where they have all the tech. I think that we will probably do this within a million years (and possibly within 5 minutes of ASI) Any aliens we meet will be technological equals, or dinosaurs with no tech whatsoever.
But your disagreement only kicks in after a million years. If we meet the first alien civilization we meet, before then, then it doesn’t seem to apply. A million (and 10,000?) years is also an even bigger interval than 10,000 - making what appears to be an even stronger case than the post you referenced.