Oh, thanks for this explanation (strong-upvoted); you’re right that distinguishing likelihoods and posteriors is really important. I also agree that single occasions only make for a very small update on character. (If this sort of thing comes up again, maybe consider explicitly making the likelihood/posterior point up front? It wasn’t clear to me that that’s what you were getting at with the great-great-great-grandparent.)
Oh, thanks for this explanation (strong-upvoted); you’re right that distinguishing likelihoods and posteriors is really important. I also agree that single occasions only make for a very small update on character. (If this sort of thing comes up again, maybe consider explicitly making the likelihood/posterior point up front? It wasn’t clear to me that that’s what you were getting at with the great-great-great-grandparent.)