Hmm. You are absolutely right, I didn’t think of all these examples.
Let me rephrase: I think probabilitites on the order of 1/(3^^^3) are OOD for expected utility calculations. We mostly don’t care about expected utility for probabilities that small.
Pascal’s mugging is bucketed either into “this is a scam” or “lottery ticket” by human values. And that is fine, unless this results in a contradiction with some of our other values. But I don’t think it does.
Abrahamic religions
Extremely high utility yes, extremely low probability no. Usually the idea is that you can get the “infinite” reward though hard work, dedication, belief, etc.
Hmm. You are absolutely right, I didn’t think of all these examples.
Let me rephrase:
I think probabilitites on the order of 1/(3^^^3) are OOD for expected utility calculations.
We mostly don’t care about expected utility for probabilities that small.
Pascal’s mugging is bucketed either into “this is a scam” or “lottery ticket” by human values. And that is fine, unless this results in a contradiction with some of our other values. But I don’t think it does.
Extremely high utility yes, extremely low probability no. Usually the idea is that you can get the “infinite” reward though hard work, dedication, belief, etc.