The issue is Adversarial reasoning is basically impossible for Bayesians, so weird results crop up.
This also shows a failure of an assumption in expected value reasoning, that you are logically omniscient and have infinite time to reason about something. This decidedly does not exist in our world, because if we accept logical omniscience, then we can brute force everything by making infinitely complex simulations, thus becoming omnipotent. Pretty obviously, this isn’t true, so Pascal’s mugging results when we take the approximation as literal truth.
The issue is Adversarial reasoning is basically impossible for Bayesians, so weird results crop up.
This also shows a failure of an assumption in expected value reasoning, that you are logically omniscient and have infinite time to reason about something. This decidedly does not exist in our world, because if we accept logical omniscience, then we can brute force everything by making infinitely complex simulations, thus becoming omnipotent. Pretty obviously, this isn’t true, so Pascal’s mugging results when we take the approximation as literal truth.