Right, when you go to argue the merits, you ask “well, if there were to be a phase change, what would the phase change look like?” And the original estimate was derived from not much effort in calibrating the numbers, and the reply was that even if we saw an utterly shocking phase change, we’d get nowhere close to 20%. You can do varying degrees of in-depth analyses to get to that point (good on you), or you can do like I did and rely on a semi-informed prior.
Here’s US growth from 1947. Imagine all the things that happened since then that could have induced mild phase changes to the growth trajectory. ASSUMING that there will be a substantial phase change (again, see Cameron Fen’s thread), 20% is still ludicrous. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=TE7B
Right, when you go to argue the merits, you ask “well, if there were to be a phase change, what would the phase change look like?” And the original estimate was derived from not much effort in calibrating the numbers, and the reply was that even if we saw an utterly shocking phase change, we’d get nowhere close to 20%. You can do varying degrees of in-depth analyses to get to that point (good on you), or you can do like I did and rely on a semi-informed prior.
Here’s US growth from 1947. Imagine all the things that happened since then that could have induced mild phase changes to the growth trajectory. ASSUMING that there will be a substantial phase change (again, see Cameron Fen’s thread), 20% is still ludicrous.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=TE7B