Ok: I’ll operationalize the ratio of first choices the first group (Stop/PauseAI) to projects in the third and fourth groups (mech interp, agent foundations) for the periods 12th-13th vs 15th-16th. I’ll discount the final day since the final-day-spike is probably confounding.
12th-13th * 18 total applications * 2 (11%) Stop/Pause AI * 7 (39%) Mech-Interp and Agent Foundations
15th-16th * 45 total application * 4 (9%) Stop/Pause AI * 20 (44%) Mech-Interp and Agent Foundations
All applications * 370 total * 33 (12%) Stop/Pause AI * 123 (46%) Mech-Interp and Agent Foundations
Looking at the above data, is directionally correct for you hypothesis, but it doesn’t look statisically significant to me. The numbers are pretty small, so could be a fluke.
So I decided to add some more data
10th-11th * 20 total applications * 4 (20%) Stop/Pause AI * 8 (40%) Mech-Interp and Agent Foundations
Looking at all of it, it looks like Stop/Pause AI are coming in at a stable rate, while Mech-Interp and Agent Foundations are going up a lot after the 14th.
10th-11th * 20 total applications * 4 (20%) Stop/Pause AI * 8 (40%) Mech-Interp and Agent Foundations
12th-13th * 18 total applications * 2 (11%) Stop/Pause AI * 7 (39%) Mech-Interp and Agent Foundations
15th-16th * 45 total application * 4 (9%) Stop/Pause AI * 20 (44%) Mech-Interp and Agent Foundations
Stop/Puase AI stays at 2-4 per week, while the others go from 7-8 to 20
One may point out that 2 to 4 is a doubling suggesting noisy data, and also going from 7-8 is also just a doubling and might not mean much. This could be the case. But we should expect higher notice for lower numbers. I.e. a doubling of 2 is less surprising than a (more than) doubling of 7-8.
Ok: I’ll operationalize the ratio of first choices the first group (Stop/PauseAI) to projects in the third and fourth groups (mech interp, agent foundations) for the periods 12th-13th vs 15th-16th. I’ll discount the final day since the final-day-spike is probably confounding.
12th-13th
* 18 total applications
* 2 (11%) Stop/Pause AI
* 7 (39%) Mech-Interp and Agent Foundations
15th-16th
* 45 total application
* 4 (9%) Stop/Pause AI
* 20 (44%) Mech-Interp and Agent Foundations
All applications
* 370 total
* 33 (12%) Stop/Pause AI
* 123 (46%) Mech-Interp and Agent Foundations
Looking at the above data, is directionally correct for you hypothesis, but it doesn’t look statisically significant to me. The numbers are pretty small, so could be a fluke.
So I decided to add some more data
10th-11th
* 20 total applications
* 4 (20%) Stop/Pause AI
* 8 (40%) Mech-Interp and Agent Foundations
Looking at all of it, it looks like Stop/Pause AI are coming in at a stable rate, while Mech-Interp and Agent Foundations are going up a lot after the 14th.
Same data but in cronlogical order
10th-11th
* 20 total applications
* 4 (20%) Stop/Pause AI
* 8 (40%) Mech-Interp and Agent Foundations
12th-13th
* 18 total applications
* 2 (11%) Stop/Pause AI
* 7 (39%) Mech-Interp and Agent Foundations
15th-16th
* 45 total application
* 4 (9%) Stop/Pause AI
* 20 (44%) Mech-Interp and Agent Foundations
Stop/Puase AI stays at 2-4 per week, while the others go from 7-8 to 20
One may point out that 2 to 4 is a doubling suggesting noisy data, and also going from 7-8 is also just a doubling and might not mean much. This could be the case. But we should expect higher notice for lower numbers. I.e. a doubling of 2 is less surprising than a (more than) doubling of 7-8.