I don’t think [AGI/ASI] literally killing everyone is the most likely outcome
Huh, I was surprised to read this. I’ve imbibed a non-trivial fraction of your posts and comments here on LessWrong, and, before reading the above, my shoulder Daniel definitely saw extinction as the most likely existential catastrophe.
If you have the time, I’d be very interested to hear what you do think is the most likely outcome. (It’s very possible that you have written about this before and I missed it—my bad, if so.)
(My model of Daniel thinks the AI will likely take over, but probably will give humanity some very small fraction of the universe, for a mixture of “caring a tiny bit” and game-theoretic reasons)
(Fwiw, I don’t find the ‘caring a tiny bit’ story very reassuring, for the same reasons as Wei Dai, although I do find the acausal tradestory for why humans might be left with Earth somewhat heartening. (I’m assuming that by ‘game-theoretic reasons’ you mean acausal trade.))
Yep, Habryka is right. Also, I agree with Wei Dai re: reassuringness. I think literal extinction is <50% likely, but this is cold comfort given the badness of some of the plausible alternatives, and overall I think the probability of something comparably bad happening is >50%.
Huh, I was surprised to read this. I’ve imbibed a non-trivial fraction of your posts and comments here on LessWrong, and, before reading the above, my shoulder Daniel definitely saw extinction as the most likely existential catastrophe.
If you have the time, I’d be very interested to hear what you do think is the most likely outcome. (It’s very possible that you have written about this before and I missed it—my bad, if so.)
(My model of Daniel thinks the AI will likely take over, but probably will give humanity some very small fraction of the universe, for a mixture of “caring a tiny bit” and game-theoretic reasons)
Thanks, that’s helpful!
(Fwiw, I don’t find the ‘caring a tiny bit’ story very reassuring, for the same reasons as Wei Dai, although I do find the acausal trade story for why humans might be left with Earth somewhat heartening. (I’m assuming that by ‘game-theoretic reasons’ you mean acausal trade.))
Yep, Habryka is right. Also, I agree with Wei Dai re: reassuringness. I think literal extinction is <50% likely, but this is cold comfort given the badness of some of the plausible alternatives, and overall I think the probability of something comparably bad happening is >50%.