Yep, Habryka is right. Also, I agree with Wei Dai re: reassuringness. I think literal extinction is <50% likely, but this is cold comfort given the badness of some of the plausible alternatives, and overall I think the probability of something comparably bad happening is >50%.
Yep, Habryka is right. Also, I agree with Wei Dai re: reassuringness. I think literal extinction is <50% likely, but this is cold comfort given the badness of some of the plausible alternatives, and overall I think the probability of something comparably bad happening is >50%.