I personally have updated a fair amount over time on
people (going on) expressing invalid reasoning for their beliefs about timelines and alignment;
people (going on) expressing beliefs about timelines and alignment that seemed relatively more explicable via explanations other than “they have some good reason to believe this that I don’t know about”;
other people’s alignment hopes and mental strategies have more visible flaws and visible doomednesses;
other people mostly don’t seem to cumulatively integrate the doomednesses of their approaches into their mental landscape as guiding elements;
my own attempts to do so fail in a different way, namely that I’m too dumb to move effectively in the resulting modified landscape.
We can back out predictions of my personal models from this, such as “we will continue to not have a clear theory of alignment” or “there will continue to be consensus views that aren’t supported by reasoning that’s solid enough that it ought to produce that consensus if everyone is being reasonable”.
I personally have updated a fair amount over time on
people (going on) expressing invalid reasoning for their beliefs about timelines and alignment;
people (going on) expressing beliefs about timelines and alignment that seemed relatively more explicable via explanations other than “they have some good reason to believe this that I don’t know about”;
other people’s alignment hopes and mental strategies have more visible flaws and visible doomednesses;
other people mostly don’t seem to cumulatively integrate the doomednesses of their approaches into their mental landscape as guiding elements;
my own attempts to do so fail in a different way, namely that I’m too dumb to move effectively in the resulting modified landscape.
We can back out predictions of my personal models from this, such as “we will continue to not have a clear theory of alignment” or “there will continue to be consensus views that aren’t supported by reasoning that’s solid enough that it ought to produce that consensus if everyone is being reasonable”.