I think another general mistake here is nerds thinking that they can ride a tiger, instead of getting eaten by it.
The wannabe 4D-chess thinking goes like this: “Here is a group of people who hate reason and experts. Therefore they have no experts among themselves. Therefore, if I join them and gain their trust, as a smart person I will quickly rise to the top, and then I will have an unparalleled opportunity to change the world.”
What actually happens: The guy joins the movement, and as long as he follows the crowd, he can get quite popular. But the first moment he tries to do something different, his popularity/influence drops instantly.
I respect Hanania for admitting his mistake. Everyone else is delusional. This is basically the same mistake Dominic Cummings made a few years ago, and apparently we didn’t learn a bit.
The doubling down is delusional but I think you’re simplifying the failure of projection a bit. The inability of markets and forecasters to predict Trump’s second term is quite interesting. A lot of different models of politics failed.
I think some Trump-adjacent people made this mistake (e.g. Peter Thiel maybe), but I don’t see how any of the three people in OP were making it? None of them were trying to rise to positions of power in the Trump administration as far as I know.
I think another general mistake here is nerds thinking that they can ride a tiger, instead of getting eaten by it.
The wannabe 4D-chess thinking goes like this: “Here is a group of people who hate reason and experts. Therefore they have no experts among themselves. Therefore, if I join them and gain their trust, as a smart person I will quickly rise to the top, and then I will have an unparalleled opportunity to change the world.”
What actually happens: The guy joins the movement, and as long as he follows the crowd, he can get quite popular. But the first moment he tries to do something different, his popularity/influence drops instantly.
I respect Hanania for admitting his mistake. Everyone else is delusional. This is basically the same mistake Dominic Cummings made a few years ago, and apparently we didn’t learn a bit.
The doubling down is delusional but I think you’re simplifying the failure of projection a bit. The inability of markets and forecasters to predict Trump’s second term is quite interesting. A lot of different models of politics failed.
It reminds maybe of Dominic Cummings and Boris Johnson. The Silicon-Valley + Trump combo feels somehow analogous.
I think some Trump-adjacent people made this mistake (e.g. Peter Thiel maybe), but I don’t see how any of the three people in OP were making it? None of them were trying to rise to positions of power in the Trump administration as far as I know.
Hammond was, right?